Comment Response, Volume One

I've decided to take on an unprecedented blog approach and dedicate an entire post to replying to reader feedback. In the case of this lowly blog, I will only be using comments from one reader, likely because he is, well, the only reader aside from my blogging partner Brian Vaughan and long-time friends Wes Buchholz and Justin Hughes; that trio has resulted in four total comments. The others come from one very dedicated poster. So, reader, just to let you know that you are not being ignored and your continued participation is greatly encouraged, here are your comments, followed by my responses, of which the lengths are sure to vary greatly.

01/16/08 - 2008 Preview: Offense
I think you're underestimating our offense. It certainly could use work, but it's not terrible like you say. Pujols, Glaus, Duncan, and Ankiel are at least as good as the top 4 hitters on any team in the league (although the American League is a different story), and Molina proved last year that he can provide decent offense for his position. The other 3 positions do have their problems offensively, but hopefully Kennedy can return to form, and Izturis will at least provide better defense than Eckstein did last year. Overall, it's still a pretty good offense, not great, but still good.
-Bulbasaurus Rex

I still have trouble seeing Molina as a sixth place hitter even in an NL lineup; he just doesn't have the power. But he is certainly hitting well for a catcher thus far, with a line of .296/.352/.418, and I don't actually think it's that much of a fluke. In his fourth full season as the Cardinals' catcher, he's finally showing signs of being a respectable hitter. His first two seasons were just awful, but he made a big leap last year and has even added a little more power this year. The best sign is his walk rate; in his first two seasons it hovered around 5 percent, and it's now shot up to over 9 percent over the last two seasons. Still, when everything evens out you're still looking at a player who's probably going to post about a .750 OPS if everything goes right for him, and that really should put him in the seven or eight spot.

As a whole, the Cardinal offense has been better than I thought, particularly the plate discipline. The hitters are reaching base at a cumulative total of .371, which is just flat out impressive. The power, however, has not been nearly as encouraging. Glaus and Duncan are especially surprising, combining for just three home runs on the early season. Who saw that coming? Until someone besides Ankiel hits for any power, Albert will continue to be treated like Barry Bonds.

01/19/2008 - 2008 Preview: Pitching
You're forgetting one important thing: Mulder won't be ready until May. I expect Reyes to take the 5th spot in the rotation until then and then go back to AAA. Other than that, I completely agree with this article. If Mulder and Clement come back strong, a September rotation of Carpenter, Mulder, Clement, Wainwright, and Looper/Piñiero looks very promising.
-Bulbasaurus Rex

I actually did keep in mind that Mulder wouldn't be healthy to start the season (and I'll be discussing him more later), but at the time the Cardinals were stating that they would only need a four-man rotation for the first month of the year, and thus would be able to neatly insert Mulder when May rolled around and they needed a fifth starter. Of course, they ended up using five starters after all in April.

03/20/2008 - Rick Ankiel Is Still Not Babe Ruth
Yes, Ankiel is nowhere near as good of a hitter as Ruth, Musial, or Pujols, but he does easily hit well enough to be one of our starting outfielders. He almost certainly won't keep pace with the home runs he hit in the 2nd half last year, but he should hit about as well as Duncan, meaning 25-30 homers, .270-.280 average, and 70-85 RBIs. Along with Pujols and Glaus, the Cardinals should have one of the best sets of four hitters in the league this year. It's SS, 2B, and the other OF position (unless Rasmus does well after he's called up) that make the lineup somewhat questionable.
-Bulbasaurus Rex

It's now May 1, and Ankiel is hitting .290, with a .372 OBP, and a .520 SLG% (.892 OPS). He's also on pace for 28 home runs, 45 doubles, 89 RBIs, and 95 runs scored. Are you ready to admit that you were wrong about him?
-Bulbasaurus Rex

Let me first restate that I have tons of respect for Rick Ankiel as an athlete. I was in love with him as a pitcher, and still feel the end of that career is a tragedy. However, in the wee stages of 2008, he is admittedly putting up numbers I didn't think he could, and I'm actually not terribly suspicious of them. He may actually be a pretty valuable hitter after all. His line has dropped a little from May 1, and is now a solid .272/.366/.474. I am not surprised by the power; in fact, I think he is absolutely capable of slugging .450-.475 easily for the rest of his career. The shocking aspect is the 16 BB/24 K ratio. If he were drawing walks at the rate he has at every stage of his career as a hitter (save for Single-A at the age of 26), his OBP could well be more like .325, which would put his OPS right around .800. Don't get me wrong; there are still uses for an .800 OPS player, and as long he shows good power, I actually think his standing as a starting outfielder is justified, albeit not his high place in the batting order. He seems better suited for hitting sixth. However, if his walk rate of 13 percent actually sticks instead of proving to be an aberration (nothing is certain in May), he could well prove to be a very dangerous hitter yet, thus making me wrong in my skeptical outlook on him. To answer the second question, he is surprising and impressing me, and I'm fine with him being a starter for now, but I'm not quite sold yet.

04/11/2008 - Free Brian Barton
It's now May 1, and Schumaker is hitting .317 with a .400 OBP and a team leading 23 runs scored. Are you ready to admit that you were wrong about him?
-Bulbasaurus Rex

No. I'm not going to throw out 2,615 minor league at-bats that show Skip is a .739 OPS kind of hitter in favor of one productive month. Like Ankiel, it all comes down to walks. Can Schumaker maintain his rate of walking 11.3 percent of the time? If so, then his speed and defensive ability would allow him to remain a fixture in the lead-off spot. That said, the power spike of the past few seasons can't last; it's simply too mind boggling. Schumaker slugged .385 in the minors cumulatively. Why is he suddenly slugging .432 in the majors? I'm doubtful he can keep up the walks or the power, and then what you have left is a guy who may be able to hit .280, but offers nothing else offensively. I'm not adamantly against Skip; I'm actually quite glad he's doing a fine job as a lead-off hitter. But I can't help but be biased against his late 20's surge. It'd be different if he were 24, but he's 28, and furthermore he's still running into inflated BABIP totals; this year he's sitting on a relatively lucky .320. I'll relent and congratulate him when the season's over if he keeps that OBP up. Until then, I'm not budging on my outlook, but I am happy he's producing.

04/21/2008 - Overhaul The Bullpen
We had one of the best bullpens in the league last year, and very little has changed. Springer, Franklin, and Isringhausen are an incredible 7th, 8th, and 9th inning combination. All 3 of them were outstanding just last year, and Springer and Isringhausen have been great for years (with the exception of Isringhausen's '06 where he was pitching hurt). Franklin showed enough last year and in the first month of this year that he really is a great set-up man, plus he's not as old as the others. They also provide important veteran bullpen leadership, which is a big problem with your suggested bullpen. There's a good chance that Springer will retire or move on next year, but Franklin is here to stay, and Izzy will probably resign with us, as he wants to finish his career in St. Louis, and Perez probably won't be ready to close. You also can't project 3 or 4 AAA relievers to the majors based on 8 or fewer innings pitched so far. Odds are, only 1 or 2 at the most will be ready at the beginning of next year. Another problem with your bullpen is innings. Those relievers can't give you multiple innings on a regular basis. You need a good swingman like Wellemeyer (or it might be Reyes's future) in order to pitch multiple innings or make a spot start.
-Bulbasaurus Rex

I don't agree on the value of the Springer/Franklin/Isringhausen combo. There's no denying that Springer had a great season last year, and that Isringhausen is still useful (although declining). Franklin, however, doesn't miss any bats and just doesn't have the dominating stuff I'd want in choosing personnel for a bullpen. You can't undervalue a relief pitcher's ability to strike out a hitter, particularly when it comes down to stranding inherited runners. I do concede your point about having a long relief/mop-up reliever, AKA the Cal Eldred role, but I see no problem there. After all, the Cardinals have already discussed using McCllelan as a starter; he could easily be stretched out into a swingman. Or somebody like the recently promoted Mike Parisi, who probably doesn't have enough ability to stick in a major league rotation, could take the mop-up role. The point I was making is that St. Louis is spending money on veterans when they have promising players within their own system that are talented and cheap. You are likely making too much of the leadership issue. If a young team wins, no one ever says anything about leadership. Besides, if the team around them isn't built to win anyway, there's nothing wrong with a young group of players learning from their mistakes together.

04/22/2008 - Too Much Pitching?
In 2005, Mulder was 16-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 111 strikeouts. That's a solid #2 starter that I would gladly take back, and he'll probably be at least that good.You miss the point of rehab assignments: the pitchers need to regain their their arm strength and command after such a long break from pitching. Those results are actually common of good early rehab starts, and strikeouts aren't everything, anyway. What really counts in Mulder's case is that he's finally got his correct pitching motion back on a consistant basis, so he should be just fine once he rejoins the team.Your analysis of our current starters leaves out one very important factor: Dave Duncan, the miracle pitching coach. Thanks to Duncan, Looper has shown that he has converted into a quality starter, Piñiero has been great since we traded for him, and Lohse is showing his true potential. Along with Wainwright, that's 4 healthy quality starters. Yes, Wellemeyer probably won't keep up his performance, but he's a good swingman for the bullpen once Mulder gets back, and we keep hearing excellent things about Carpenter's recovery. By August, we could have a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Mulder, and 2 out of Lohse, Looper, Piñiero, and Clement, which would be one of the best rotations in baseball.
-Bulbasaurus Rex

Settle down, there. I'm a huge supporter of Wainwright, and if Carpenter returns healthy, I'm a believer he still has two or three great seasons left in him, but I'm going to stop you there. First of all, in addressing Mulder, I do understand that rehab assignments are meant for pitchers recovering from an injury to get back into their comfort zone. I'm not worried about command issues currently; Mulder can walk as many hitters as he wants to for now. I'd just like to point out that his minor league starts have been woefully unimpressive. If he's ready to come back and be a high caliber major league starting pitcher, he should at least have shown flashes of dominance while pitching to much less seasoned hitters. He's shown nothing of the sort. In fact, he's been shelled in his last two starts. He tops out at 89 mph now; while in Oakland, he was a semi-power pitcher, throwing 93-94. He's not the same pitcher now, and he wasn't even in 2005. You say he was a solid number two starter that year, but I disagree. I want my number two starter posting better K/BB numbers than 111/70. There's no reason to be optimistic about his return.

In calling St. Louis's potential rotation "one of the best in baseball", you're sure banking on a lot of variables breaking exactly the right way, and that's a dangerously high outlook. Who knows what Clement will pitch like when/if he gets healthy? Is Pineiro even fully healthy? He hasn't really been pitching all that well. And Lohse took a beating in his last start, which rocked his previously impressive ERA. The problem is, it's just hard to get excited about a bunch of finesse pitchers who live and die by getting ground balls. Dave Duncan may well be a fine pitching coach, but I think his ability to make any pitcher automatically better is a bit contrived. Just ask Jason Marquis.

As a final note, I do wish to remind you that your comments and opinions, even the dissenting ones, are always welcome on our blog, and I only wish we had other readers who were as active as you. Hell, I wish we had other readers. Keep posting.