Believe it or not, I have a long-standing history of judging baseball players, and a lot of times I'm just flat out mean. There is always an educated reason for the stances I take, and there are three logical directions that my projections of a player's future can go:
1) The player proves me correct by being just as good or bad as I claimed he would be.
2) The player proves me incorrect by being markedly better or worse than I claimed he would be.
3) The player doesn't perform well enough or badly enough to fall into either of the first two categories. (More often than not, this is the case).
I've decided it's time to address the instances in which a player has clearly fallen into those first two categories. It's time to admit when I've been brashly negative toward a player who blossomed, and it's also time to rub everyone's ugly faces in the piles of my accurate prognostications. That said, if I've mocked a player's appearance or off-the-field proclivities, tough shit. I'm not apologizing. (Julian Tavarez looks like someone threw darts into his face and Sidney Ponson would drink whiskey off a bathroom floor). Anyway, here we go.
When I was reading Spencer's last post, it occurred to me that I've been a bit of an asshole to Brian Roberts, and that he deserves better. He's developed into a very solid starting second baseman, and I should treat him as such when I speak or write of him. While I haven't honestly spoke about Brian Roberts to much of anyone recently, or written about anything at all in months, I vow to place him in proper regard from this point forward. He deserves it! May we take a look at Roberts' improvement over the years. First off, here are the first four seasons of Roberts' career:
2001: .253/.284/.341 in 273 AB
2002: .227/.308/.297 in 128 AB
2003: .270/.337/.367 in 460 AB
2004: .273/.344/.376 in 641 AB
As you can plainly see, I had ample reason to think that Roberts' early 2005 home run binge was all sorts of bullshit. He was terrible. By 2004, though, he actually had proven that he wasn't nearly as bad as initial showing with the Orioles would suggest. Though he had yet to really add anything resembling power, he was starting to gradually increase his walk rate enough to almost warrant being a major leaguer. Almost. And then this happened...
2005: .314/.387/.515 in 561 AB
2006: .286/.347/.410 in 563 AB
2007: .290/.377/.432 in 621 AB
2008: .296/.375/.489 in 362 AB
As you can see, Brian Roberts got a whole lot better. In fact, the aforementioned statistical spike that caused me to develop physical ailments in early 2005 would fail to subside for the duration that season. Roberts was simply fantastic, posting a .902 OPS as a second baseman. He later came back to earth, and his performance since has been indicative of what one should reasonably expect from him. He's a very good starting second baseman and nothing less. Cough, steroids, cough. I'm a very small, petty individual.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Crafting The Perfect Trade
Greetings after another Sprayahen Disappearance (TM). I'd love to promise that these SD's won't occur anymore, but they will. That's just part of our charm on this blog. It's what sets us apart from all those other fantastic Cardinal blogs out there. Well, that, and the fact that we have no readers. So mainly those two.
While all the lazy baseball players rest for their precious "All-Star Break", I'm going to spend my day off doing something productive and post a blog about them. More specifically, what I think the Cardinals should do to solidify their roster for the second half. Let me preface all of this by stating that I actually am not confident this team can hold off fellow Wild Card competitors Milwaukee and New York, and I've all but given up hope that they have any shot at catching the Cubs for the division lead. The Cubs are just too good, and have Rich Harden. Fucking Cubs. But lack of confidence notwithstanding, the fact is that the Cards are still in this thing, so it's okay to dream as I sit here typing this on July 15. The following are the products of this dreaming.
It seems to me that the Cardinal offense actually doesn't suck. The team's cumulative OPS is sitting at .779 headed into the All-Star Break, which is good for fifth in all of the major leagues, including those cheating/awesome AL teams using a DH. Only the Cubs have a better offense in the much more gritty/terrible National League. So with that being said, should the Cardinals focus more on acquiring pitching help? No, and I'll tell you why. There are plenty of in-house solutions when it comes to pitching; they need to let their own guys sort out the pitching holes. Offensively, they would need to consult outside sources if they are to improve their chances at staying in the race in the second half. They have too many outfielders with the same set of skills, and too many middle infielders with no set of skills. The result is a logjam in both departments, and a personal guarantee from manager Tony LaRussa that he'll be inserting at least four position players incapable of hitting for power in the lineup every game.
Tradition dictates that it's okay to have a few spots in your lineup where power is not required. That would be the leadoff spot, where OBP trumps SLG handily, and the 7-8 slots (or the 7 and 9 slots for the Cardinals, who continue to pointlessly hit the pitcher 8th). Typically, those three powerless positions are catcher, short stop, and second base. And the Cardinals adhere to that standard admirably by never using who can hit for power at those spots. The problem is, none of them bat leadoff, so the only place you can put them is 6-7-8/9. That's been my complaint this entire season; someone with no power has to hit sixth or second the way this roster is currently set up. As solid as this offense has been in 2008, if they could just manage to acquire a middle infielder who can hit for some power, their lineup is set. I wouldn't take this issue lightly, either; they absolutely do need another impact bat in the lineup, but it's senseless for that impact bat to come in the form of another outfielder, even one as good as Jason Bay. Is anyone really satisfied with the combined offensive output of Miles/Kennedy/Ryan/Izturis? I'm not, and I want to look at alternatives.
No one currently in the system would be much of an upgrade. Sure, I'd rather see Memphis second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir (.297/.381/.403) playing every day in St. Louis instead of Miles or Kennedy, but he doesn't fit the power criteria I'm looking for in a 2/6 hitter that would beef up the heart of the order and keep the non-power threats either in the leadoff spot or 7 and lower. So in this instance, we'd have to pursue a trade to meet this need. You don't need an all-star, just someone who can safely stay on the .400 side in the slugging department. Some ideas? Gladly.
Brian Roberts (2B) - .296/.375/.489
He's been ridiculed in the past by fellow sprayahen writer Brian Vaughan, but Roberts, steroids or not, has slugged well over .400 in each of the past four seasons and now boasts a career total of .417, even with the inclusion of several light hitting seasons before his .902 OPS break out in 2005. I know Roberts is not close to that good, but he draws walks and hits for enough power to serve as a great two hitter in front of Albert Pujols.
Orlando Hudson (2B) - .302/.359/.457
O-Dog is a very solid player; great glove at second and a more than adequate bat, possessing a little power as well as decent plate discipline. The only problem is that he may be boosted a bit by his home park with an OPS of just .742 outside of Arizona. He's more effective from the left side of the plate, particularly this season.
Mark DeRosa (2B) - .283/.377/.453
I admit that I thought the Cubs were crazy when they signed him to 3 year/$13 million contract in 2007, and I admit that I was wrong. He's done nothing but earn that money ever since, and I wish he was a Cardinal.
Ray Durham (2B) - .293/.385/.414
Although it'd be a clear half-season rental in this case since the 36-year-old Durham is a free agent to be and he should have no place in the Cardinals' future, if he could be acquired cheaply, he could be a fine addition down the stretch of 2008.
Obviously, most teams that St. Louis talks trade with are going to ask mainly about Colby Rasmus and Bryan Anderson, but are also likely to inquire about Jess Todd and Jaime Garcia as well. I'd hate to see the Cardinals part with any of those top four prospects, but the most expendable is easily Anderson since the club has no interest in displacing Yadier Molina. Since Anderson is far too good of a hitter to be a backup catcher, it's only a matter of time before he's dealt, and I've come to terms with that. I believe any of those second basemen listed above could be had merely by offering secondary prospects like Mitchell Boggs and possibly stumbling, unproven major league players such as Chris Duncan or Anthony Reyes.
At any rate, put me in the group that doesn't believe the Cardinals should turn over their farm system to add big names to their roster and gun for the post-season in 2008. This rebuilding process is actually increasing my interest in the team, and I personally would be irritated if the front office doesn't stick to that plan. I think the only moves that make sense for this trade deadline involve trading surplus position players and/or fringe prospects for temporary upgrades at the major league level. I realize fans are starting to get nervous because the heat to stay in the race is really on now and no one wants to see this team get buried after working so hard, but the best bet really is to wait for the return of Carpenter and Wainwright, get rid of unnecessary extra pieces, and make sure that minor league system keeps going full force.
While all the lazy baseball players rest for their precious "All-Star Break", I'm going to spend my day off doing something productive and post a blog about them. More specifically, what I think the Cardinals should do to solidify their roster for the second half. Let me preface all of this by stating that I actually am not confident this team can hold off fellow Wild Card competitors Milwaukee and New York, and I've all but given up hope that they have any shot at catching the Cubs for the division lead. The Cubs are just too good, and have Rich Harden. Fucking Cubs. But lack of confidence notwithstanding, the fact is that the Cards are still in this thing, so it's okay to dream as I sit here typing this on July 15. The following are the products of this dreaming.
It seems to me that the Cardinal offense actually doesn't suck. The team's cumulative OPS is sitting at .779 headed into the All-Star Break, which is good for fifth in all of the major leagues, including those cheating/awesome AL teams using a DH. Only the Cubs have a better offense in the much more gritty/terrible National League. So with that being said, should the Cardinals focus more on acquiring pitching help? No, and I'll tell you why. There are plenty of in-house solutions when it comes to pitching; they need to let their own guys sort out the pitching holes. Offensively, they would need to consult outside sources if they are to improve their chances at staying in the race in the second half. They have too many outfielders with the same set of skills, and too many middle infielders with no set of skills. The result is a logjam in both departments, and a personal guarantee from manager Tony LaRussa that he'll be inserting at least four position players incapable of hitting for power in the lineup every game.
Tradition dictates that it's okay to have a few spots in your lineup where power is not required. That would be the leadoff spot, where OBP trumps SLG handily, and the 7-8 slots (or the 7 and 9 slots for the Cardinals, who continue to pointlessly hit the pitcher 8th). Typically, those three powerless positions are catcher, short stop, and second base. And the Cardinals adhere to that standard admirably by never using who can hit for power at those spots. The problem is, none of them bat leadoff, so the only place you can put them is 6-7-8/9. That's been my complaint this entire season; someone with no power has to hit sixth or second the way this roster is currently set up. As solid as this offense has been in 2008, if they could just manage to acquire a middle infielder who can hit for some power, their lineup is set. I wouldn't take this issue lightly, either; they absolutely do need another impact bat in the lineup, but it's senseless for that impact bat to come in the form of another outfielder, even one as good as Jason Bay. Is anyone really satisfied with the combined offensive output of Miles/Kennedy/Ryan/Izturis? I'm not, and I want to look at alternatives.
No one currently in the system would be much of an upgrade. Sure, I'd rather see Memphis second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir (.297/.381/.403) playing every day in St. Louis instead of Miles or Kennedy, but he doesn't fit the power criteria I'm looking for in a 2/6 hitter that would beef up the heart of the order and keep the non-power threats either in the leadoff spot or 7 and lower. So in this instance, we'd have to pursue a trade to meet this need. You don't need an all-star, just someone who can safely stay on the .400 side in the slugging department. Some ideas? Gladly.
Brian Roberts (2B) - .296/.375/.489He's been ridiculed in the past by fellow sprayahen writer Brian Vaughan, but Roberts, steroids or not, has slugged well over .400 in each of the past four seasons and now boasts a career total of .417, even with the inclusion of several light hitting seasons before his .902 OPS break out in 2005. I know Roberts is not close to that good, but he draws walks and hits for enough power to serve as a great two hitter in front of Albert Pujols.
Orlando Hudson (2B) - .302/.359/.457
O-Dog is a very solid player; great glove at second and a more than adequate bat, possessing a little power as well as decent plate discipline. The only problem is that he may be boosted a bit by his home park with an OPS of just .742 outside of Arizona. He's more effective from the left side of the plate, particularly this season.
Mark DeRosa (2B) - .283/.377/.453
I admit that I thought the Cubs were crazy when they signed him to 3 year/$13 million contract in 2007, and I admit that I was wrong. He's done nothing but earn that money ever since, and I wish he was a Cardinal.
Ray Durham (2B) - .293/.385/.414
Although it'd be a clear half-season rental in this case since the 36-year-old Durham is a free agent to be and he should have no place in the Cardinals' future, if he could be acquired cheaply, he could be a fine addition down the stretch of 2008.
Obviously, most teams that St. Louis talks trade with are going to ask mainly about Colby Rasmus and Bryan Anderson, but are also likely to inquire about Jess Todd and Jaime Garcia as well. I'd hate to see the Cardinals part with any of those top four prospects, but the most expendable is easily Anderson since the club has no interest in displacing Yadier Molina. Since Anderson is far too good of a hitter to be a backup catcher, it's only a matter of time before he's dealt, and I've come to terms with that. I believe any of those second basemen listed above could be had merely by offering secondary prospects like Mitchell Boggs and possibly stumbling, unproven major league players such as Chris Duncan or Anthony Reyes.
At any rate, put me in the group that doesn't believe the Cardinals should turn over their farm system to add big names to their roster and gun for the post-season in 2008. This rebuilding process is actually increasing my interest in the team, and I personally would be irritated if the front office doesn't stick to that plan. I think the only moves that make sense for this trade deadline involve trading surplus position players and/or fringe prospects for temporary upgrades at the major league level. I realize fans are starting to get nervous because the heat to stay in the race is really on now and no one wants to see this team get buried after working so hard, but the best bet really is to wait for the return of Carpenter and Wainwright, get rid of unnecessary extra pieces, and make sure that minor league system keeps going full force.
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