Believe it or not, I have a long-standing history of judging baseball players, and a lot of times I'm just flat out mean. There is always an educated reason for the stances I take, and there are three logical directions that my projections of a player's future can go:
1) The player proves me correct by being just as good or bad as I claimed he would be.
2) The player proves me incorrect by being markedly better or worse than I claimed he would be.
3) The player doesn't perform well enough or badly enough to fall into either of the first two categories. (More often than not, this is the case).
I've decided it's time to address the instances in which a player has clearly fallen into those first two categories. It's time to admit when I've been brashly negative toward a player who blossomed, and it's also time to rub everyone's ugly faces in the piles of my accurate prognostications. That said, if I've mocked a player's appearance or off-the-field proclivities, tough shit. I'm not apologizing. (Julian Tavarez looks like someone threw darts into his face and Sidney Ponson would drink whiskey off a bathroom floor). Anyway, here we go.
When I was reading Spencer's last post, it occurred to me that I've been a bit of an asshole to Brian Roberts, and that he deserves better. He's developed into a very solid starting second baseman, and I should treat him as such when I speak or write of him. While I haven't honestly spoke about Brian Roberts to much of anyone recently, or written about anything at all in months, I vow to place him in proper regard from this point forward. He deserves it! May we take a look at Roberts' improvement over the years. First off, here are the first four seasons of Roberts' career:
2001: .253/.284/.341 in 273 AB
2002: .227/.308/.297 in 128 AB
2003: .270/.337/.367 in 460 AB
2004: .273/.344/.376 in 641 AB
As you can plainly see, I had ample reason to think that Roberts' early 2005 home run binge was all sorts of bullshit. He was terrible. By 2004, though, he actually had proven that he wasn't nearly as bad as initial showing with the Orioles would suggest. Though he had yet to really add anything resembling power, he was starting to gradually increase his walk rate enough to almost warrant being a major leaguer. Almost. And then this happened...
2005: .314/.387/.515 in 561 AB
2006: .286/.347/.410 in 563 AB
2007: .290/.377/.432 in 621 AB
2008: .296/.375/.489 in 362 AB
As you can see, Brian Roberts got a whole lot better. In fact, the aforementioned statistical spike that caused me to develop physical ailments in early 2005 would fail to subside for the duration that season. Roberts was simply fantastic, posting a .902 OPS as a second baseman. He later came back to earth, and his performance since has been indicative of what one should reasonably expect from him. He's a very good starting second baseman and nothing less. Cough, steroids, cough. I'm a very small, petty individual.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Crafting The Perfect Trade
Greetings after another Sprayahen Disappearance (TM). I'd love to promise that these SD's won't occur anymore, but they will. That's just part of our charm on this blog. It's what sets us apart from all those other fantastic Cardinal blogs out there. Well, that, and the fact that we have no readers. So mainly those two.
While all the lazy baseball players rest for their precious "All-Star Break", I'm going to spend my day off doing something productive and post a blog about them. More specifically, what I think the Cardinals should do to solidify their roster for the second half. Let me preface all of this by stating that I actually am not confident this team can hold off fellow Wild Card competitors Milwaukee and New York, and I've all but given up hope that they have any shot at catching the Cubs for the division lead. The Cubs are just too good, and have Rich Harden. Fucking Cubs. But lack of confidence notwithstanding, the fact is that the Cards are still in this thing, so it's okay to dream as I sit here typing this on July 15. The following are the products of this dreaming.
It seems to me that the Cardinal offense actually doesn't suck. The team's cumulative OPS is sitting at .779 headed into the All-Star Break, which is good for fifth in all of the major leagues, including those cheating/awesome AL teams using a DH. Only the Cubs have a better offense in the much more gritty/terrible National League. So with that being said, should the Cardinals focus more on acquiring pitching help? No, and I'll tell you why. There are plenty of in-house solutions when it comes to pitching; they need to let their own guys sort out the pitching holes. Offensively, they would need to consult outside sources if they are to improve their chances at staying in the race in the second half. They have too many outfielders with the same set of skills, and too many middle infielders with no set of skills. The result is a logjam in both departments, and a personal guarantee from manager Tony LaRussa that he'll be inserting at least four position players incapable of hitting for power in the lineup every game.
Tradition dictates that it's okay to have a few spots in your lineup where power is not required. That would be the leadoff spot, where OBP trumps SLG handily, and the 7-8 slots (or the 7 and 9 slots for the Cardinals, who continue to pointlessly hit the pitcher 8th). Typically, those three powerless positions are catcher, short stop, and second base. And the Cardinals adhere to that standard admirably by never using who can hit for power at those spots. The problem is, none of them bat leadoff, so the only place you can put them is 6-7-8/9. That's been my complaint this entire season; someone with no power has to hit sixth or second the way this roster is currently set up. As solid as this offense has been in 2008, if they could just manage to acquire a middle infielder who can hit for some power, their lineup is set. I wouldn't take this issue lightly, either; they absolutely do need another impact bat in the lineup, but it's senseless for that impact bat to come in the form of another outfielder, even one as good as Jason Bay. Is anyone really satisfied with the combined offensive output of Miles/Kennedy/Ryan/Izturis? I'm not, and I want to look at alternatives.
No one currently in the system would be much of an upgrade. Sure, I'd rather see Memphis second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir (.297/.381/.403) playing every day in St. Louis instead of Miles or Kennedy, but he doesn't fit the power criteria I'm looking for in a 2/6 hitter that would beef up the heart of the order and keep the non-power threats either in the leadoff spot or 7 and lower. So in this instance, we'd have to pursue a trade to meet this need. You don't need an all-star, just someone who can safely stay on the .400 side in the slugging department. Some ideas? Gladly.
Brian Roberts (2B) - .296/.375/.489
He's been ridiculed in the past by fellow sprayahen writer Brian Vaughan, but Roberts, steroids or not, has slugged well over .400 in each of the past four seasons and now boasts a career total of .417, even with the inclusion of several light hitting seasons before his .902 OPS break out in 2005. I know Roberts is not close to that good, but he draws walks and hits for enough power to serve as a great two hitter in front of Albert Pujols.
Orlando Hudson (2B) - .302/.359/.457
O-Dog is a very solid player; great glove at second and a more than adequate bat, possessing a little power as well as decent plate discipline. The only problem is that he may be boosted a bit by his home park with an OPS of just .742 outside of Arizona. He's more effective from the left side of the plate, particularly this season.
Mark DeRosa (2B) - .283/.377/.453
I admit that I thought the Cubs were crazy when they signed him to 3 year/$13 million contract in 2007, and I admit that I was wrong. He's done nothing but earn that money ever since, and I wish he was a Cardinal.
Ray Durham (2B) - .293/.385/.414
Although it'd be a clear half-season rental in this case since the 36-year-old Durham is a free agent to be and he should have no place in the Cardinals' future, if he could be acquired cheaply, he could be a fine addition down the stretch of 2008.
Obviously, most teams that St. Louis talks trade with are going to ask mainly about Colby Rasmus and Bryan Anderson, but are also likely to inquire about Jess Todd and Jaime Garcia as well. I'd hate to see the Cardinals part with any of those top four prospects, but the most expendable is easily Anderson since the club has no interest in displacing Yadier Molina. Since Anderson is far too good of a hitter to be a backup catcher, it's only a matter of time before he's dealt, and I've come to terms with that. I believe any of those second basemen listed above could be had merely by offering secondary prospects like Mitchell Boggs and possibly stumbling, unproven major league players such as Chris Duncan or Anthony Reyes.
At any rate, put me in the group that doesn't believe the Cardinals should turn over their farm system to add big names to their roster and gun for the post-season in 2008. This rebuilding process is actually increasing my interest in the team, and I personally would be irritated if the front office doesn't stick to that plan. I think the only moves that make sense for this trade deadline involve trading surplus position players and/or fringe prospects for temporary upgrades at the major league level. I realize fans are starting to get nervous because the heat to stay in the race is really on now and no one wants to see this team get buried after working so hard, but the best bet really is to wait for the return of Carpenter and Wainwright, get rid of unnecessary extra pieces, and make sure that minor league system keeps going full force.
While all the lazy baseball players rest for their precious "All-Star Break", I'm going to spend my day off doing something productive and post a blog about them. More specifically, what I think the Cardinals should do to solidify their roster for the second half. Let me preface all of this by stating that I actually am not confident this team can hold off fellow Wild Card competitors Milwaukee and New York, and I've all but given up hope that they have any shot at catching the Cubs for the division lead. The Cubs are just too good, and have Rich Harden. Fucking Cubs. But lack of confidence notwithstanding, the fact is that the Cards are still in this thing, so it's okay to dream as I sit here typing this on July 15. The following are the products of this dreaming.
It seems to me that the Cardinal offense actually doesn't suck. The team's cumulative OPS is sitting at .779 headed into the All-Star Break, which is good for fifth in all of the major leagues, including those cheating/awesome AL teams using a DH. Only the Cubs have a better offense in the much more gritty/terrible National League. So with that being said, should the Cardinals focus more on acquiring pitching help? No, and I'll tell you why. There are plenty of in-house solutions when it comes to pitching; they need to let their own guys sort out the pitching holes. Offensively, they would need to consult outside sources if they are to improve their chances at staying in the race in the second half. They have too many outfielders with the same set of skills, and too many middle infielders with no set of skills. The result is a logjam in both departments, and a personal guarantee from manager Tony LaRussa that he'll be inserting at least four position players incapable of hitting for power in the lineup every game.
Tradition dictates that it's okay to have a few spots in your lineup where power is not required. That would be the leadoff spot, where OBP trumps SLG handily, and the 7-8 slots (or the 7 and 9 slots for the Cardinals, who continue to pointlessly hit the pitcher 8th). Typically, those three powerless positions are catcher, short stop, and second base. And the Cardinals adhere to that standard admirably by never using who can hit for power at those spots. The problem is, none of them bat leadoff, so the only place you can put them is 6-7-8/9. That's been my complaint this entire season; someone with no power has to hit sixth or second the way this roster is currently set up. As solid as this offense has been in 2008, if they could just manage to acquire a middle infielder who can hit for some power, their lineup is set. I wouldn't take this issue lightly, either; they absolutely do need another impact bat in the lineup, but it's senseless for that impact bat to come in the form of another outfielder, even one as good as Jason Bay. Is anyone really satisfied with the combined offensive output of Miles/Kennedy/Ryan/Izturis? I'm not, and I want to look at alternatives.
No one currently in the system would be much of an upgrade. Sure, I'd rather see Memphis second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir (.297/.381/.403) playing every day in St. Louis instead of Miles or Kennedy, but he doesn't fit the power criteria I'm looking for in a 2/6 hitter that would beef up the heart of the order and keep the non-power threats either in the leadoff spot or 7 and lower. So in this instance, we'd have to pursue a trade to meet this need. You don't need an all-star, just someone who can safely stay on the .400 side in the slugging department. Some ideas? Gladly.
Brian Roberts (2B) - .296/.375/.489He's been ridiculed in the past by fellow sprayahen writer Brian Vaughan, but Roberts, steroids or not, has slugged well over .400 in each of the past four seasons and now boasts a career total of .417, even with the inclusion of several light hitting seasons before his .902 OPS break out in 2005. I know Roberts is not close to that good, but he draws walks and hits for enough power to serve as a great two hitter in front of Albert Pujols.
Orlando Hudson (2B) - .302/.359/.457
O-Dog is a very solid player; great glove at second and a more than adequate bat, possessing a little power as well as decent plate discipline. The only problem is that he may be boosted a bit by his home park with an OPS of just .742 outside of Arizona. He's more effective from the left side of the plate, particularly this season.
Mark DeRosa (2B) - .283/.377/.453
I admit that I thought the Cubs were crazy when they signed him to 3 year/$13 million contract in 2007, and I admit that I was wrong. He's done nothing but earn that money ever since, and I wish he was a Cardinal.
Ray Durham (2B) - .293/.385/.414
Although it'd be a clear half-season rental in this case since the 36-year-old Durham is a free agent to be and he should have no place in the Cardinals' future, if he could be acquired cheaply, he could be a fine addition down the stretch of 2008.
Obviously, most teams that St. Louis talks trade with are going to ask mainly about Colby Rasmus and Bryan Anderson, but are also likely to inquire about Jess Todd and Jaime Garcia as well. I'd hate to see the Cardinals part with any of those top four prospects, but the most expendable is easily Anderson since the club has no interest in displacing Yadier Molina. Since Anderson is far too good of a hitter to be a backup catcher, it's only a matter of time before he's dealt, and I've come to terms with that. I believe any of those second basemen listed above could be had merely by offering secondary prospects like Mitchell Boggs and possibly stumbling, unproven major league players such as Chris Duncan or Anthony Reyes.
At any rate, put me in the group that doesn't believe the Cardinals should turn over their farm system to add big names to their roster and gun for the post-season in 2008. This rebuilding process is actually increasing my interest in the team, and I personally would be irritated if the front office doesn't stick to that plan. I think the only moves that make sense for this trade deadline involve trading surplus position players and/or fringe prospects for temporary upgrades at the major league level. I realize fans are starting to get nervous because the heat to stay in the race is really on now and no one wants to see this team get buried after working so hard, but the best bet really is to wait for the return of Carpenter and Wainwright, get rid of unnecessary extra pieces, and make sure that minor league system keeps going full force.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Comment Response, Volume One
I've decided to take on an unprecedented blog approach and dedicate an entire post to replying to reader feedback. In the case of this lowly blog, I will only be using comments from one reader, likely because he is, well, the only reader aside from my blogging partner Brian Vaughan and long-time friends Wes Buchholz and Justin Hughes; that trio has resulted in four total comments. The others come from one very dedicated poster. So, reader, just to let you know that you are not being ignored and your continued participation is greatly encouraged, here are your comments, followed by my responses, of which the lengths are sure to vary greatly.
01/16/08 - 2008 Preview: Offense
I think you're underestimating our offense. It certainly could use work, but it's not terrible like you say. Pujols, Glaus, Duncan, and Ankiel are at least as good as the top 4 hitters on any team in the league (although the American League is a different story), and Molina proved last year that he can provide decent offense for his position. The other 3 positions do have their problems offensively, but hopefully Kennedy can return to form, and Izturis will at least provide better defense than Eckstein did last year. Overall, it's still a pretty good offense, not great, but still good.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
I still have trouble seeing Molina as a sixth place hitter even in an NL lineup; he just doesn't have the power. But he is certainly hitting well for a catcher thus far, with a line of .296/.352/.418, and I don't actually think it's that much of a fluke. In his fourth full season as the Cardinals' catcher, he's finally showing signs of being a respectable hitter. His first two seasons were just awful, but he made a big leap last year and has even added a little more power this year. The best sign is his walk rate; in his first two seasons it hovered around 5 percent, and it's now shot up to over 9 percent over the last two seasons. Still, when everything evens out you're still looking at a player who's probably going to post about a .750 OPS if everything goes right for him, and that really should put him in the seven or eight spot.
As a whole, the Cardinal offense has been better than I thought, particularly the plate discipline. The hitters are reaching base at a cumulative total of .371, which is just flat out impressive. The power, however, has not been nearly as encouraging. Glaus and Duncan are especially surprising, combining for just three home runs on the early season. Who saw that coming? Until someone besides Ankiel hits for any power, Albert will continue to be treated like Barry Bonds.
01/19/2008 - 2008 Preview: Pitching
You're forgetting one important thing: Mulder won't be ready until May. I expect Reyes to take the 5th spot in the rotation until then and then go back to AAA. Other than that, I completely agree with this article. If Mulder and Clement come back strong, a September rotation of Carpenter, Mulder, Clement, Wainwright, and Looper/Piñiero looks very promising.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
I actually did keep in mind that Mulder wouldn't be healthy to start the season (and I'll be discussing him more later), but at the time the Cardinals were stating that they would only need a four-man rotation for the first month of the year, and thus would be able to neatly insert Mulder when May rolled around and they needed a fifth starter. Of course, they ended up using five starters after all in April.
03/20/2008 - Rick Ankiel Is Still Not Babe Ruth
Yes, Ankiel is nowhere near as good of a hitter as Ruth, Musial, or Pujols, but he does easily hit well enough to be one of our starting outfielders. He almost certainly won't keep pace with the home runs he hit in the 2nd half last year, but he should hit about as well as Duncan, meaning 25-30 homers, .270-.280 average, and 70-85 RBIs. Along with Pujols and Glaus, the Cardinals should have one of the best sets of four hitters in the league this year. It's SS, 2B, and the other OF position (unless Rasmus does well after he's called up) that make the lineup somewhat questionable.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
It's now May 1, and Ankiel is hitting .290, with a .372 OBP, and a .520 SLG% (.892 OPS). He's also on pace for 28 home runs, 45 doubles, 89 RBIs, and 95 runs scored. Are you ready to admit that you were wrong about him?
-Bulbasaurus Rex
Let me first restate that I have tons of respect for Rick Ankiel as an athlete. I was in love with him as a pitcher, and still feel the end of that career is a tragedy. However, in the wee stages of 2008, he is admittedly putting up numbers I didn't think he could, and I'm actually not terribly suspicious of them. He may actually be a pretty valuable hitter after all. His line has dropped a little from May 1, and is now a solid .272/.366/.474. I am not surprised by the power; in fact, I think he is absolutely capable of slugging .450-.475 easily for the rest of his career. The shocking aspect is the 16 BB/24 K ratio. If he were drawing walks at the rate he has at every stage of his career as a hitter (save for Single-A at the age of 26), his OBP could well be more like .325, which would put his OPS right around .800. Don't get me wrong; there are still uses for an .800 OPS player, and as long he shows good power, I actually think his standing as a starting outfielder is justified, albeit not his high place in the batting order. He seems better suited for hitting sixth. However, if his walk rate of 13 percent actually sticks instead of proving to be an aberration (nothing is certain in May), he could well prove to be a very dangerous hitter yet, thus making me wrong in my skeptical outlook on him. To answer the second question, he is surprising and impressing me, and I'm fine with him being a starter for now, but I'm not quite sold yet.
04/11/2008 - Free Brian Barton
It's now May 1, and Schumaker is hitting .317 with a .400 OBP and a team leading 23 runs scored. Are you ready to admit that you were wrong about him?
-Bulbasaurus Rex
No. I'm not going to throw out 2,615 minor league at-bats that show Skip is a .739 OPS kind of hitter in favor of one productive month. Like Ankiel, it all comes down to walks. Can Schumaker maintain his rate of walking 11.3 percent of the time? If so, then his speed and defensive ability would allow him to remain a fixture in the lead-off spot. That said, the power spike of the past few seasons can't last; it's simply too mind boggling. Schumaker slugged .385 in the minors cumulatively. Why is he suddenly slugging .432 in the majors? I'm doubtful he can keep up the walks or the power, and then what you have left is a guy who may be able to hit .280, but offers nothing else offensively. I'm not adamantly against Skip; I'm actually quite glad he's doing a fine job as a lead-off hitter. But I can't help but be biased against his late 20's surge. It'd be different if he were 24, but he's 28, and furthermore he's still running into inflated BABIP totals; this year he's sitting on a relatively lucky .320. I'll relent and congratulate him when the season's over if he keeps that OBP up. Until then, I'm not budging on my outlook, but I am happy he's producing.
04/21/2008 - Overhaul The Bullpen
We had one of the best bullpens in the league last year, and very little has changed. Springer, Franklin, and Isringhausen are an incredible 7th, 8th, and 9th inning combination. All 3 of them were outstanding just last year, and Springer and Isringhausen have been great for years (with the exception of Isringhausen's '06 where he was pitching hurt). Franklin showed enough last year and in the first month of this year that he really is a great set-up man, plus he's not as old as the others. They also provide important veteran bullpen leadership, which is a big problem with your suggested bullpen. There's a good chance that Springer will retire or move on next year, but Franklin is here to stay, and Izzy will probably resign with us, as he wants to finish his career in St. Louis, and Perez probably won't be ready to close. You also can't project 3 or 4 AAA relievers to the majors based on 8 or fewer innings pitched so far. Odds are, only 1 or 2 at the most will be ready at the beginning of next year. Another problem with your bullpen is innings. Those relievers can't give you multiple innings on a regular basis. You need a good swingman like Wellemeyer (or it might be Reyes's future) in order to pitch multiple innings or make a spot start.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
I don't agree on the value of the Springer/Franklin/Isringhausen combo. There's no denying that Springer had a great season last year, and that Isringhausen is still useful (although declining). Franklin, however, doesn't miss any bats and just doesn't have the dominating stuff I'd want in choosing personnel for a bullpen. You can't undervalue a relief pitcher's ability to strike out a hitter, particularly when it comes down to stranding inherited runners. I do concede your point about having a long relief/mop-up reliever, AKA the Cal Eldred role, but I see no problem there. After all, the Cardinals have already discussed using McCllelan as a starter; he could easily be stretched out into a swingman. Or somebody like the recently promoted Mike Parisi, who probably doesn't have enough ability to stick in a major league rotation, could take the mop-up role. The point I was making is that St. Louis is spending money on veterans when they have promising players within their own system that are talented and cheap. You are likely making too much of the leadership issue. If a young team wins, no one ever says anything about leadership. Besides, if the team around them isn't built to win anyway, there's nothing wrong with a young group of players learning from their mistakes together.
04/22/2008 - Too Much Pitching?
In 2005, Mulder was 16-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 111 strikeouts. That's a solid #2 starter that I would gladly take back, and he'll probably be at least that good.You miss the point of rehab assignments: the pitchers need to regain their their arm strength and command after such a long break from pitching. Those results are actually common of good early rehab starts, and strikeouts aren't everything, anyway. What really counts in Mulder's case is that he's finally got his correct pitching motion back on a consistant basis, so he should be just fine once he rejoins the team.Your analysis of our current starters leaves out one very important factor: Dave Duncan, the miracle pitching coach. Thanks to Duncan, Looper has shown that he has converted into a quality starter, Piñiero has been great since we traded for him, and Lohse is showing his true potential. Along with Wainwright, that's 4 healthy quality starters. Yes, Wellemeyer probably won't keep up his performance, but he's a good swingman for the bullpen once Mulder gets back, and we keep hearing excellent things about Carpenter's recovery. By August, we could have a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Mulder, and 2 out of Lohse, Looper, Piñiero, and Clement, which would be one of the best rotations in baseball.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
Settle down, there. I'm a huge supporter of Wainwright, and if Carpenter returns healthy, I'm a believer he still has two or three great seasons left in him, but I'm going to stop you there. First of all, in addressing Mulder, I do understand that rehab assignments are meant for pitchers recovering from an injury to get back into their comfort zone. I'm not worried about command issues currently; Mulder can walk as many hitters as he wants to for now. I'd just like to point out that his minor league starts have been woefully unimpressive. If he's ready to come back and be a high caliber major league starting pitcher, he should at least have shown flashes of dominance while pitching to much less seasoned hitters. He's shown nothing of the sort. In fact, he's been shelled in his last two starts. He tops out at 89 mph now; while in Oakland, he was a semi-power pitcher, throwing 93-94. He's not the same pitcher now, and he wasn't even in 2005. You say he was a solid number two starter that year, but I disagree. I want my number two starter posting better K/BB numbers than 111/70. There's no reason to be optimistic about his return.
In calling St. Louis's potential rotation "one of the best in baseball", you're sure banking on a lot of variables breaking exactly the right way, and that's a dangerously high outlook. Who knows what Clement will pitch like when/if he gets healthy? Is Pineiro even fully healthy? He hasn't really been pitching all that well. And Lohse took a beating in his last start, which rocked his previously impressive ERA. The problem is, it's just hard to get excited about a bunch of finesse pitchers who live and die by getting ground balls. Dave Duncan may well be a fine pitching coach, but I think his ability to make any pitcher automatically better is a bit contrived. Just ask Jason Marquis.
As a final note, I do wish to remind you that your comments and opinions, even the dissenting ones, are always welcome on our blog, and I only wish we had other readers who were as active as you. Hell, I wish we had other readers. Keep posting.
01/16/08 - 2008 Preview: Offense
I think you're underestimating our offense. It certainly could use work, but it's not terrible like you say. Pujols, Glaus, Duncan, and Ankiel are at least as good as the top 4 hitters on any team in the league (although the American League is a different story), and Molina proved last year that he can provide decent offense for his position. The other 3 positions do have their problems offensively, but hopefully Kennedy can return to form, and Izturis will at least provide better defense than Eckstein did last year. Overall, it's still a pretty good offense, not great, but still good.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
I still have trouble seeing Molina as a sixth place hitter even in an NL lineup; he just doesn't have the power. But he is certainly hitting well for a catcher thus far, with a line of .296/.352/.418, and I don't actually think it's that much of a fluke. In his fourth full season as the Cardinals' catcher, he's finally showing signs of being a respectable hitter. His first two seasons were just awful, but he made a big leap last year and has even added a little more power this year. The best sign is his walk rate; in his first two seasons it hovered around 5 percent, and it's now shot up to over 9 percent over the last two seasons. Still, when everything evens out you're still looking at a player who's probably going to post about a .750 OPS if everything goes right for him, and that really should put him in the seven or eight spot.
As a whole, the Cardinal offense has been better than I thought, particularly the plate discipline. The hitters are reaching base at a cumulative total of .371, which is just flat out impressive. The power, however, has not been nearly as encouraging. Glaus and Duncan are especially surprising, combining for just three home runs on the early season. Who saw that coming? Until someone besides Ankiel hits for any power, Albert will continue to be treated like Barry Bonds.
01/19/2008 - 2008 Preview: Pitching
You're forgetting one important thing: Mulder won't be ready until May. I expect Reyes to take the 5th spot in the rotation until then and then go back to AAA. Other than that, I completely agree with this article. If Mulder and Clement come back strong, a September rotation of Carpenter, Mulder, Clement, Wainwright, and Looper/Piñiero looks very promising.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
I actually did keep in mind that Mulder wouldn't be healthy to start the season (and I'll be discussing him more later), but at the time the Cardinals were stating that they would only need a four-man rotation for the first month of the year, and thus would be able to neatly insert Mulder when May rolled around and they needed a fifth starter. Of course, they ended up using five starters after all in April.
03/20/2008 - Rick Ankiel Is Still Not Babe Ruth
Yes, Ankiel is nowhere near as good of a hitter as Ruth, Musial, or Pujols, but he does easily hit well enough to be one of our starting outfielders. He almost certainly won't keep pace with the home runs he hit in the 2nd half last year, but he should hit about as well as Duncan, meaning 25-30 homers, .270-.280 average, and 70-85 RBIs. Along with Pujols and Glaus, the Cardinals should have one of the best sets of four hitters in the league this year. It's SS, 2B, and the other OF position (unless Rasmus does well after he's called up) that make the lineup somewhat questionable.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
It's now May 1, and Ankiel is hitting .290, with a .372 OBP, and a .520 SLG% (.892 OPS). He's also on pace for 28 home runs, 45 doubles, 89 RBIs, and 95 runs scored. Are you ready to admit that you were wrong about him?
-Bulbasaurus Rex
Let me first restate that I have tons of respect for Rick Ankiel as an athlete. I was in love with him as a pitcher, and still feel the end of that career is a tragedy. However, in the wee stages of 2008, he is admittedly putting up numbers I didn't think he could, and I'm actually not terribly suspicious of them. He may actually be a pretty valuable hitter after all. His line has dropped a little from May 1, and is now a solid .272/.366/.474. I am not surprised by the power; in fact, I think he is absolutely capable of slugging .450-.475 easily for the rest of his career. The shocking aspect is the 16 BB/24 K ratio. If he were drawing walks at the rate he has at every stage of his career as a hitter (save for Single-A at the age of 26), his OBP could well be more like .325, which would put his OPS right around .800. Don't get me wrong; there are still uses for an .800 OPS player, and as long he shows good power, I actually think his standing as a starting outfielder is justified, albeit not his high place in the batting order. He seems better suited for hitting sixth. However, if his walk rate of 13 percent actually sticks instead of proving to be an aberration (nothing is certain in May), he could well prove to be a very dangerous hitter yet, thus making me wrong in my skeptical outlook on him. To answer the second question, he is surprising and impressing me, and I'm fine with him being a starter for now, but I'm not quite sold yet.
04/11/2008 - Free Brian Barton
It's now May 1, and Schumaker is hitting .317 with a .400 OBP and a team leading 23 runs scored. Are you ready to admit that you were wrong about him?
-Bulbasaurus Rex
No. I'm not going to throw out 2,615 minor league at-bats that show Skip is a .739 OPS kind of hitter in favor of one productive month. Like Ankiel, it all comes down to walks. Can Schumaker maintain his rate of walking 11.3 percent of the time? If so, then his speed and defensive ability would allow him to remain a fixture in the lead-off spot. That said, the power spike of the past few seasons can't last; it's simply too mind boggling. Schumaker slugged .385 in the minors cumulatively. Why is he suddenly slugging .432 in the majors? I'm doubtful he can keep up the walks or the power, and then what you have left is a guy who may be able to hit .280, but offers nothing else offensively. I'm not adamantly against Skip; I'm actually quite glad he's doing a fine job as a lead-off hitter. But I can't help but be biased against his late 20's surge. It'd be different if he were 24, but he's 28, and furthermore he's still running into inflated BABIP totals; this year he's sitting on a relatively lucky .320. I'll relent and congratulate him when the season's over if he keeps that OBP up. Until then, I'm not budging on my outlook, but I am happy he's producing.
04/21/2008 - Overhaul The Bullpen
We had one of the best bullpens in the league last year, and very little has changed. Springer, Franklin, and Isringhausen are an incredible 7th, 8th, and 9th inning combination. All 3 of them were outstanding just last year, and Springer and Isringhausen have been great for years (with the exception of Isringhausen's '06 where he was pitching hurt). Franklin showed enough last year and in the first month of this year that he really is a great set-up man, plus he's not as old as the others. They also provide important veteran bullpen leadership, which is a big problem with your suggested bullpen. There's a good chance that Springer will retire or move on next year, but Franklin is here to stay, and Izzy will probably resign with us, as he wants to finish his career in St. Louis, and Perez probably won't be ready to close. You also can't project 3 or 4 AAA relievers to the majors based on 8 or fewer innings pitched so far. Odds are, only 1 or 2 at the most will be ready at the beginning of next year. Another problem with your bullpen is innings. Those relievers can't give you multiple innings on a regular basis. You need a good swingman like Wellemeyer (or it might be Reyes's future) in order to pitch multiple innings or make a spot start.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
I don't agree on the value of the Springer/Franklin/Isringhausen combo. There's no denying that Springer had a great season last year, and that Isringhausen is still useful (although declining). Franklin, however, doesn't miss any bats and just doesn't have the dominating stuff I'd want in choosing personnel for a bullpen. You can't undervalue a relief pitcher's ability to strike out a hitter, particularly when it comes down to stranding inherited runners. I do concede your point about having a long relief/mop-up reliever, AKA the Cal Eldred role, but I see no problem there. After all, the Cardinals have already discussed using McCllelan as a starter; he could easily be stretched out into a swingman. Or somebody like the recently promoted Mike Parisi, who probably doesn't have enough ability to stick in a major league rotation, could take the mop-up role. The point I was making is that St. Louis is spending money on veterans when they have promising players within their own system that are talented and cheap. You are likely making too much of the leadership issue. If a young team wins, no one ever says anything about leadership. Besides, if the team around them isn't built to win anyway, there's nothing wrong with a young group of players learning from their mistakes together.
04/22/2008 - Too Much Pitching?
In 2005, Mulder was 16-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 111 strikeouts. That's a solid #2 starter that I would gladly take back, and he'll probably be at least that good.You miss the point of rehab assignments: the pitchers need to regain their their arm strength and command after such a long break from pitching. Those results are actually common of good early rehab starts, and strikeouts aren't everything, anyway. What really counts in Mulder's case is that he's finally got his correct pitching motion back on a consistant basis, so he should be just fine once he rejoins the team.Your analysis of our current starters leaves out one very important factor: Dave Duncan, the miracle pitching coach. Thanks to Duncan, Looper has shown that he has converted into a quality starter, Piñiero has been great since we traded for him, and Lohse is showing his true potential. Along with Wainwright, that's 4 healthy quality starters. Yes, Wellemeyer probably won't keep up his performance, but he's a good swingman for the bullpen once Mulder gets back, and we keep hearing excellent things about Carpenter's recovery. By August, we could have a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Mulder, and 2 out of Lohse, Looper, Piñiero, and Clement, which would be one of the best rotations in baseball.
-Bulbasaurus Rex
Settle down, there. I'm a huge supporter of Wainwright, and if Carpenter returns healthy, I'm a believer he still has two or three great seasons left in him, but I'm going to stop you there. First of all, in addressing Mulder, I do understand that rehab assignments are meant for pitchers recovering from an injury to get back into their comfort zone. I'm not worried about command issues currently; Mulder can walk as many hitters as he wants to for now. I'd just like to point out that his minor league starts have been woefully unimpressive. If he's ready to come back and be a high caliber major league starting pitcher, he should at least have shown flashes of dominance while pitching to much less seasoned hitters. He's shown nothing of the sort. In fact, he's been shelled in his last two starts. He tops out at 89 mph now; while in Oakland, he was a semi-power pitcher, throwing 93-94. He's not the same pitcher now, and he wasn't even in 2005. You say he was a solid number two starter that year, but I disagree. I want my number two starter posting better K/BB numbers than 111/70. There's no reason to be optimistic about his return.
In calling St. Louis's potential rotation "one of the best in baseball", you're sure banking on a lot of variables breaking exactly the right way, and that's a dangerously high outlook. Who knows what Clement will pitch like when/if he gets healthy? Is Pineiro even fully healthy? He hasn't really been pitching all that well. And Lohse took a beating in his last start, which rocked his previously impressive ERA. The problem is, it's just hard to get excited about a bunch of finesse pitchers who live and die by getting ground balls. Dave Duncan may well be a fine pitching coach, but I think his ability to make any pitcher automatically better is a bit contrived. Just ask Jason Marquis.
As a final note, I do wish to remind you that your comments and opinions, even the dissenting ones, are always welcome on our blog, and I only wish we had other readers who were as active as you. Hell, I wish we had other readers. Keep posting.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Too Much Pitching?
"Oh, what an exciting time it is to be a Cardinal fan!" exclaims the clueless, unobservant baseball follower. See, this person hears the news that Mark Mulder has been "pitching well" in a couple rehab starts and is on his way back to the majors, where he will "pitch like the Mark Mulder of old". The trouble is, he hasn't been pitching very well, even against minor league hitters mind you, and he'll never be the Mark Mulder of old. That Mark Mulder didn't even make the transition to the National League in 2005. The best the Cardinals can hope for is that season's edition of Mulder, who is, at best, a middle of the rotation starter. But considerin
g the alternatives, namely that they may be stuck with the '06-'07 version, which means worse than replacement level, I'd gladly take '05 Mark Mulder.
Here is the problem: in his first rehab start against Class A hitters, Mulder went five innings, giving up six hits and striking out just one. He topped out at 88 mph, and was throwing in the low 80's by the end of his outing. His next start in Springfield against Class AA hitters was really not much more encouraging, as he went six innings while striking out just one with a fastball that averaged out at 87 mph. I understand he's only given up one run, and I understand it could take time for him to regain his command, but the fact that he isn't missing the bats of raw, unpolished farm products leads me to believe that once promoted back to the majors, it'll only be more of the same thing we've seen the past few seasons. Like I said, best case scenario, we may get the Mulder of '05, who was extraordinarily average. The bottom line is no one needs to be getting excited about the return of Mark Mulder, not anymore.
I actually think the Cardinals' front office realizes this, finally. It shows in the sense that they're not exactly eager to stick him back on the 25-man roster; instead, they're letting their fill-ins continue filling in while stretching Mulder's rehab assignment to the maximum 30 days. Although they claim it's just so he can get his feel back, what it actually means is that privately no one believes he's an upgrade, even over the likes of Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper. Wellemeyer, for one, is pitching out of his mind right now (26 K/9 BB in 25 IP), although expecting it to last is foolishly optimistic.
The problem that Cardinals have is a surplus of players that are replaceable. The only genuine way to solve this problem is to trade/release every single dead weight player and fill in the gaps with farm products, cost effective solutions that can perform on par with the likes of Aaron Miles, Skip Schumaker, and Brad Thompson. Admittedly, none of those guys is hogging up payroll, but they have little to no ceiling; they're just taking up roster space. When Russ Springer was recalled, the only obvious player to be sent down was Rico Washington, which gives St. Louis the unusual breakdown of 12 position players and 13 pitchers. This won't even out again until Brendan Ryan is ready to go, in which case one of the 13 pitchers, none of whom are especially deserving, have to be sent down to AAA or, even better, released.
It's unfair to say that Brad Thompson has been pitching poorly to start the season, so a demotion seems kind of odd, but the fact is they wouldn't be demoting him because he hasn't pitched well enough. They'd be demoting him because he isn't talented enough. Personally, I think Villone should go before Thompson, but since he's left-handed, that's not likely to happen. The fact is, the Cardinals do have too many pitchers to put them all at the big league level, especially when/if Matt Clement and Chris Carpenter return, and guys like Anthony Reyes and even Thompson are probably good enough to where they could pitch in the majors somewhere.
When you get right down it, though, this alleged pitching surplus is only in quantity, not quality. If you count out all the pitchers who are either unproven or injured with their future ability in doubt, you're left with only one bona fide starter: Adam Wainwright. The rest of the pitching staff is riddled with converted relievers and long shot has-beens, and that includes Matt Clement, who is unlikely to return to his power pitching ways of 2002-2004 after such a long lay-off. The same goes for Pineiro, who hasn't even been decent since 2003. This team may have a lot of names to juggle into their complicated 12-man jigsaw puzzle, but the future of the pitching assembly should primarily include Adam Wainwright and a lot of promising farm system relievers.
g the alternatives, namely that they may be stuck with the '06-'07 version, which means worse than replacement level, I'd gladly take '05 Mark Mulder.Here is the problem: in his first rehab start against Class A hitters, Mulder went five innings, giving up six hits and striking out just one. He topped out at 88 mph, and was throwing in the low 80's by the end of his outing. His next start in Springfield against Class AA hitters was really not much more encouraging, as he went six innings while striking out just one with a fastball that averaged out at 87 mph. I understand he's only given up one run, and I understand it could take time for him to regain his command, but the fact that he isn't missing the bats of raw, unpolished farm products leads me to believe that once promoted back to the majors, it'll only be more of the same thing we've seen the past few seasons. Like I said, best case scenario, we may get the Mulder of '05, who was extraordinarily average. The bottom line is no one needs to be getting excited about the return of Mark Mulder, not anymore.
I actually think the Cardinals' front office realizes this, finally. It shows in the sense that they're not exactly eager to stick him back on the 25-man roster; instead, they're letting their fill-ins continue filling in while stretching Mulder's rehab assignment to the maximum 30 days. Although they claim it's just so he can get his feel back, what it actually means is that privately no one believes he's an upgrade, even over the likes of Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper. Wellemeyer, for one, is pitching out of his mind right now (26 K/9 BB in 25 IP), although expecting it to last is foolishly optimistic.
The problem that Cardinals have is a surplus of players that are replaceable. The only genuine way to solve this problem is to trade/release every single dead weight player and fill in the gaps with farm products, cost effective solutions that can perform on par with the likes of Aaron Miles, Skip Schumaker, and Brad Thompson. Admittedly, none of those guys is hogging up payroll, but they have little to no ceiling; they're just taking up roster space. When Russ Springer was recalled, the only obvious player to be sent down was Rico Washington, which gives St. Louis the unusual breakdown of 12 position players and 13 pitchers. This won't even out again until Brendan Ryan is ready to go, in which case one of the 13 pitchers, none of whom are especially deserving, have to be sent down to AAA or, even better, released.
It's unfair to say that Brad Thompson has been pitching poorly to start the season, so a demotion seems kind of odd, but the fact is they wouldn't be demoting him because he hasn't pitched well enough. They'd be demoting him because he isn't talented enough. Personally, I think Villone should go before Thompson, but since he's left-handed, that's not likely to happen. The fact is, the Cardinals do have too many pitchers to put them all at the big league level, especially when/if Matt Clement and Chris Carpenter return, and guys like Anthony Reyes and even Thompson are probably good enough to where they could pitch in the majors somewhere.
When you get right down it, though, this alleged pitching surplus is only in quantity, not quality. If you count out all the pitchers who are either unproven or injured with their future ability in doubt, you're left with only one bona fide starter: Adam Wainwright. The rest of the pitching staff is riddled with converted relievers and long shot has-beens, and that includes Matt Clement, who is unlikely to return to his power pitching ways of 2002-2004 after such a long lay-off. The same goes for Pineiro, who hasn't even been decent since 2003. This team may have a lot of names to juggle into their complicated 12-man jigsaw puzzle, but the future of the pitching assembly should primarily include Adam Wainwright and a lot of promising farm system relievers.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Overhaul The Bullpen
I'm really starting to get into this whole build from within movement that's sweeping baseball. Of course, it doesn't really work if your farm system blows, and while the St. Louis minor league affiliates currently offer little more than depth players on the offensive side of the ball (aside from Rasmus, currently slugging a sexy .292 in AAA), the one area where this organization could actually impress using mostly their own products is the bullpen.
Sadly, due to the same hardheaded approach La Russa has taken for years, fans are still being treated to a patchwork collection of overpriced veterans coming in to finish off games in St. Louis, and that's unfortunate. I've compiled a list of the current Redbird relievers, including their contract details, who I feel would be better off elsewhere.
Jason Isringhausen ($8 million, signed through 2008)
Izzy has had a good run as the Cardinal closer; to claim otherwise would be madness. His 211 (and counting) saves while in St. Louis since 2002 are a franchise record that will hold up for a long while. That said, raw saves don't always tell the whole story, just like win totals for starters. Look deeper, and you'll find that Isringhausen has failed to post a 2/1 K to BB ratio every year since 2004, and his K/9 rate continues to drop, down to 7.44 last year. Add to the case against him that he turns 36 in September, and it's obvious that this should be the end of the line for an admittedly useful pitcher.
Russ Springer ($3.5 million, signed through 2008)
Although Russ was fantastic in 2007, holding hitters to a .511 OPS and striking out exactly a batter an inning, he turns 40 after the season and has never really been as great as he was last season. Bringing him back for 2008 was a silly money wasting move, and one that wasn't necessary for this team. Maybe if they were stacked with major league talent and were only one bullpen slot away from being built for a World Series title, but there's no way St. Louis, in its current state, should have thrown $3 million in this direction.
Ryan Franklin ($2.25 million, signed through 2009, club option for 2010)
Ridiculous. That's the only word I can think of to describe the notion of Ryan Franklin hurling baseballs from a mound in St. Louis through the 2010 season. Franklin is 35, and has never been a good pitcher. Even in his career year of 2007, which featured a 3.04 ERA and 25 holds, he posted a measly K/9 rate of only 4.95 and his ground ball rate was below average. He got lucky, and he shouldn't have been more than a one year rental. Steroids.
Ron Villone ($0.6 million, signed through 2008)
Nothing against Villone since he isn't making much and probably won't be around past this season, but he'd better be shipped down to the minors fast when other pitchers start regaining their health. He's 38 and walks everyone (4.81 career BB/9 rate). That said, he's better than Mark Mulder.
So the Cards' bullpen currently features four relievers they don't need. That said, at least three of them won't be back next season (hopefully), and perhaps Franklin will disappear somehow as well. I'm now going to do the predictable thing and discuss the bullpen I, personally, would like to see. If I have to wait until 2009 to see it, fine, but I maintain it could be quite successful even now. Let's go with a seven man bullpen, since that seems to be a reasonable expectation.
Randy Flores, 32 (L)
2008 MLB - 3.1 IP, 4 K/3 BB, 0.00 ERA
Tyler Johnson, 26 (L)
2007 MLB - 38 IP, 24 K/16 BB, 4.03 ERA
Kyle McClellan, 23 (R)
2008 MLB - 9.2 IP, 9 K/2 BB, 2.79 ERA
Mark Worrell, 25 (R)
2008 AAA - 7.2 IP, 13 K/5 BB, 1.17 ERA
Jason Motte, 25 (R)
2008 AAA - 8.2 IP, 15 K/2 BB, 2.08 ERA
Chris Perez, 22 (R)
2008 AAA - 8.2 IP, 9 K/2 BB, 3.11 ERA
Josh Kinney, 29 (R)
2006 MLB - 25 IP, 22 K/8 BB, 3.24 ERA
Oh my god! They're all relatively young (Flores is the elder at 32), and they don't even suck! I realize Kinney and Johnson are injured at the moment, but they could be back and pitching at full strength by next season, surely. Furthermore, there aren't any bullshit swingmen among them. No Todd Wellemeyers, no Braden Loopers, no Brad Thompsons. Just a nice solid core of relievers who are exciting to watch and would probably be pretty damn good too. The right handers in particular have the potential to rack up the K's. That could be a very overpowering bunch.
I know what you're thinking. 'Who closes out of that bunch, smart guy? None of them have any experience!' Well, who cares. Perez is the guy that has been labeled as the closer of the future. I understand he's still a little raw, and a lot wild, but let him grow into the role. It's not as though the bullpen is going to make or break this team over the next few years, considering the lack of offense and starting pitching, so let it grow and accrue experience time together as a unit. It could genuinely be an awesome process, gradually evolving into one of the best bullpens in baseball. And the best part is that they're all so cheap and young, they could be around for years. I know I'm just dreaming in an idealist's world here, but it sure looks good on paper. Too bad we'll never get the chance to see how such a youthful combination would look in reality.
Sadly, due to the same hardheaded approach La Russa has taken for years, fans are still being treated to a patchwork collection of overpriced veterans coming in to finish off games in St. Louis, and that's unfortunate. I've compiled a list of the current Redbird relievers, including their contract details, who I feel would be better off elsewhere.
Jason Isringhausen ($8 million, signed through 2008)
Izzy has had a good run as the Cardinal closer; to claim otherwise would be madness. His 211 (and counting) saves while in St. Louis since 2002 are a franchise record that will hold up for a long while. That said, raw saves don't always tell the whole story, just like win totals for starters. Look deeper, and you'll find that Isringhausen has failed to post a 2/1 K to BB ratio every year since 2004, and his K/9 rate continues to drop, down to 7.44 last year. Add to the case against him that he turns 36 in September, and it's obvious that this should be the end of the line for an admittedly useful pitcher.
Russ Springer ($3.5 million, signed through 2008)
Although Russ was fantastic in 2007, holding hitters to a .511 OPS and striking out exactly a batter an inning, he turns 40 after the season and has never really been as great as he was last season. Bringing him back for 2008 was a silly money wasting move, and one that wasn't necessary for this team. Maybe if they were stacked with major league talent and were only one bullpen slot away from being built for a World Series title, but there's no way St. Louis, in its current state, should have thrown $3 million in this direction.
Ryan Franklin ($2.25 million, signed through 2009, club option for 2010)
Ridiculous. That's the only word I can think of to describe the notion of Ryan Franklin hurling baseballs from a mound in St. Louis through the 2010 season. Franklin is 35, and has never been a good pitcher. Even in his career year of 2007, which featured a 3.04 ERA and 25 holds, he posted a measly K/9 rate of only 4.95 and his ground ball rate was below average. He got lucky, and he shouldn't have been more than a one year rental. Steroids.
Ron Villone ($0.6 million, signed through 2008)
Nothing against Villone since he isn't making much and probably won't be around past this season, but he'd better be shipped down to the minors fast when other pitchers start regaining their health. He's 38 and walks everyone (4.81 career BB/9 rate). That said, he's better than Mark Mulder.
So the Cards' bullpen currently features four relievers they don't need. That said, at least three of them won't be back next season (hopefully), and perhaps Franklin will disappear somehow as well. I'm now going to do the predictable thing and discuss the bullpen I, personally, would like to see. If I have to wait until 2009 to see it, fine, but I maintain it could be quite successful even now. Let's go with a seven man bullpen, since that seems to be a reasonable expectation.
Randy Flores, 32 (L)
2008 MLB - 3.1 IP, 4 K/3 BB, 0.00 ERA
Tyler Johnson, 26 (L)
2007 MLB - 38 IP, 24 K/16 BB, 4.03 ERA
Kyle McClellan, 23 (R)
2008 MLB - 9.2 IP, 9 K/2 BB, 2.79 ERA
Mark Worrell, 25 (R)
2008 AAA - 7.2 IP, 13 K/5 BB, 1.17 ERA
Jason Motte, 25 (R)
2008 AAA - 8.2 IP, 15 K/2 BB, 2.08 ERA
Chris Perez, 22 (R)
2008 AAA - 8.2 IP, 9 K/2 BB, 3.11 ERA
Josh Kinney, 29 (R)
2006 MLB - 25 IP, 22 K/8 BB, 3.24 ERA
Oh my god! They're all relatively young (Flores is the elder at 32), and they don't even suck! I realize Kinney and Johnson are injured at the moment, but they could be back and pitching at full strength by next season, surely. Furthermore, there aren't any bullshit swingmen among them. No Todd Wellemeyers, no Braden Loopers, no Brad Thompsons. Just a nice solid core of relievers who are exciting to watch and would probably be pretty damn good too. The right handers in particular have the potential to rack up the K's. That could be a very overpowering bunch.
I know what you're thinking. 'Who closes out of that bunch, smart guy? None of them have any experience!' Well, who cares. Perez is the guy that has been labeled as the closer of the future. I understand he's still a little raw, and a lot wild, but let him grow into the role. It's not as though the bullpen is going to make or break this team over the next few years, considering the lack of offense and starting pitching, so let it grow and accrue experience time together as a unit. It could genuinely be an awesome process, gradually evolving into one of the best bullpens in baseball. And the best part is that they're all so cheap and young, they could be around for years. I know I'm just dreaming in an idealist's world here, but it sure looks good on paper. Too bad we'll never get the chance to see how such a youthful combination would look in reality.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Free Brian Barton
Good day readers. I have only time for a very brief post before returning back to my job to check people out endlessly, while hoping that they don't choose to use their shopping carts as storage for their herd of small children. The quick point I'd like to make is to take yet another shot at Skip Schumaker, and more honorably, promote the fine play of Rule 5 draftee Brian Barton.
This won't be the first time it is pointed out an a sprayahen article that Tony La Russa has way too much faith in the horribly untalented Schumaker. Despite a terrible slump to start the season, La Russa has stuck with the Quadruple-A player religiously, recently insisting that he is a "quality lead-off hitter" who shouldn't be penalized just because his batted balls weren't finding holes. See, the problem is, over the course of Schumaker's lucky ass career, his batted balls have been doing nothing but finding holes, to an absurdly lucky extent. For instance, all one needs to do is look at last season's batting average on balls in play: .368. The average BABIP rate is close to .300; that's just insane. Schumaker has been nothing but lucky in any of his success so far, and has never shown anything bordering on actual ability.
Barton, on the other hand, has put up solid minor league numbers and possesses numerous skills, such as patience, speed, and even a bit of power. He is a much more gifted player than Schumaker and would put up the numbers to support it if both were given an equal chance. Barton's early line of .417/.462/.667 is great, although he has only received 12 at bats. Nonetheless, I find it terribly sad that nothing short of Schumaker's demise could get him out of the lineup (possibly not even that would do it). Tony will continue to pencil him in no matter how badly he slumps, asserting that he's just going through bad luck, when in fact he's just showing the kind of hitter he actually is. Schumaker's struggles out of the gate were so bad that I think even Albert would have been released if it had been him hitting that way. And yet there isn't a player Tony seems to trust more. Sad, sad, sad. It just goes to show the Cardinals' con
tinued policy on undervaluing talented players with the last name of Barton. Nothing new here.
tinued policy on undervaluing talented players with the last name of Barton. Nothing new here.As a last note, I had a dream last night that La Russa was fired. This tells me two things. One, I really need to get out more. Two, I secretly am sick of Tony managing the Cardinals. He doesn't fit the organization outlook on rebuilding. He hates younger players despite his comments earlier in the spring, and he only knows how to put out a lineup full of tough, salty used up veterans because he believes that's the most reliable way to win. La Russa's a Hall of Fame manager; I'm just tired of how predictable his personnel choices are, and I don't think it really meshes with the direction the team is going in. As a last note, I love Brian Barton.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Rick Ankiel Is Still Not Babe Ruth
Before I begin, let me apologize for the unsurprising drop-off in production over the last few months. It can mostly be summarized in one word: poverty. We, at the house of Sprayahen Baseball, have no money, and there have been several ice storms, internet stoppages, and full out power outages in recent times that have kept us derailed and unable to bring our community of reader (singular noun, based on the comments thus far, and we most likely already lost that one by now) any new content. If you are still around, reader, feel free to leave a comment. If not, I will just go ahead and write the rest of this for Brian.
A little over two years ago, I penned an article for sprayahen.com about the nature of Rick Ankiel's conversion to a hitter. I proclaimed that there were a multitude of reasons to "convince me that Rick will not have quite the success Babe Ruth had as a hitter." I also said that "the day he even stands in a major league batter's box during a regular season game as a position player should never come." Well, that day has already come and gone, and he's already succeeded far more than anyone thought he would. The problem is that as impressive as his accomplishment is, it still isn't worth getting that excited over as a fan. Maybe if I were Rick's mother, I'd be pretty proud of him, but as a baseball fan, and a cynical one at that, I still say he should have fucking stuck to pitching, where he could have meant so much more to the sport.
Here's my issue: people actually think he's going to be a genuine middle-of-the-order force offensively. That just isn't very likely. The man is obviously very athle
tic and possesses good raw power, but that's where it stops. He has no plate discipline whatsoever, and he'll be extremely beatable as soon as major league pitchers have the chance to best learn how to exploit his weaknesses. As exciting as his power surge in late 2007 was, it sickens me to hear Tony talking about batting him clean-up, or even second. It would appear that the most optimistic on-base percentage projection for him would be somewhere around the .330 range, and that's if his batting average is pretty lofty. I'm not saying a hitter with a .330 OBP could in no circumstances ever bat in the middle of the order, but he'd better be slugging somewhere around the .600 range, or he's simply not an elite player. Ankiel is not an elite player, at least not as a hitter. He's suitable enough for an extra outfielder, but that's not what is expected of him these days.
According to Jeff Gordon of the Post-Dispatch, now that the Cardinals have locked up Wainwright in a deal very similar to that of battery mate Yadier Molina, the organization's next challenge "will be keeping Rick Ankiel, should Young Musial enjoy the breakout season many expect. That could cost a LOT of money, but the Cards will have the budget for it after taking a pass on pricey free-agent outfielders like Torii Hunter."
The only point Gordon makes that I do want to concur with is that the club absolutely did itself a favor by not going after the likes of Torii Hunter. He's just plain not very good, and the length of his contract alone is cause for concern, setting aside all issues with the $18 million seasonal average. However, the rest of the ideas expressed in Gordon's selected text is laughable. We're comparing Ankiel to Stan Musial now? Why, other than that Musial, too, was a pitcher who converted to hitting? Musial's career line was .331/.417/.559; Ankiel has no shot at approaching any of those, particularly the OBP portion. He did happen to slug .535 in his brief big-league sample last season, and if he were able to reproduce that stat every season with 600 at-bats, you'd have a dangerous hitter. Even so, with an OBP of .330 or worse, you still only have a sixth place hitter in any respectable lineup. However, the odds of that slugging percentage being repeated are not in Rick's favor, especially not if he's exposed by playing every day.
I'm not trying to tear down Ankiel, or even Jeff Gordon. Neither would need to work 12 AM-8 AM shifts to make ends meet, so it's not that I'm being arrogant and claiming superiority here. I'm simply suggesting that Rick Ankiel is no Babe Ruth. In fact, he's not even Stan Musial. He's certainly a better option than Skip Schumaker, and if great expectations weren't unreasonably being heaped upon him, I'd be just fine with his presence on the big league roster, where he could effectively serve as a viable bench player, one capable of making productive pinch hit appearances and giving the regular outfielders at all three positions rest from time to time. Temper your expectations, you feel-good story seeking optimists.
A little over two years ago, I penned an article for sprayahen.com about the nature of Rick Ankiel's conversion to a hitter. I proclaimed that there were a multitude of reasons to "convince me that Rick will not have quite the success Babe Ruth had as a hitter." I also said that "the day he even stands in a major league batter's box during a regular season game as a position player should never come." Well, that day has already come and gone, and he's already succeeded far more than anyone thought he would. The problem is that as impressive as his accomplishment is, it still isn't worth getting that excited over as a fan. Maybe if I were Rick's mother, I'd be pretty proud of him, but as a baseball fan, and a cynical one at that, I still say he should have fucking stuck to pitching, where he could have meant so much more to the sport.
Here's my issue: people actually think he's going to be a genuine middle-of-the-order force offensively. That just isn't very likely. The man is obviously very athle
tic and possesses good raw power, but that's where it stops. He has no plate discipline whatsoever, and he'll be extremely beatable as soon as major league pitchers have the chance to best learn how to exploit his weaknesses. As exciting as his power surge in late 2007 was, it sickens me to hear Tony talking about batting him clean-up, or even second. It would appear that the most optimistic on-base percentage projection for him would be somewhere around the .330 range, and that's if his batting average is pretty lofty. I'm not saying a hitter with a .330 OBP could in no circumstances ever bat in the middle of the order, but he'd better be slugging somewhere around the .600 range, or he's simply not an elite player. Ankiel is not an elite player, at least not as a hitter. He's suitable enough for an extra outfielder, but that's not what is expected of him these days.According to Jeff Gordon of the Post-Dispatch, now that the Cardinals have locked up Wainwright in a deal very similar to that of battery mate Yadier Molina, the organization's next challenge "will be keeping Rick Ankiel, should Young Musial enjoy the breakout season many expect. That could cost a LOT of money, but the Cards will have the budget for it after taking a pass on pricey free-agent outfielders like Torii Hunter."
The only point Gordon makes that I do want to concur with is that the club absolutely did itself a favor by not going after the likes of Torii Hunter. He's just plain not very good, and the length of his contract alone is cause for concern, setting aside all issues with the $18 million seasonal average. However, the rest of the ideas expressed in Gordon's selected text is laughable. We're comparing Ankiel to Stan Musial now? Why, other than that Musial, too, was a pitcher who converted to hitting? Musial's career line was .331/.417/.559; Ankiel has no shot at approaching any of those, particularly the OBP portion. He did happen to slug .535 in his brief big-league sample last season, and if he were able to reproduce that stat every season with 600 at-bats, you'd have a dangerous hitter. Even so, with an OBP of .330 or worse, you still only have a sixth place hitter in any respectable lineup. However, the odds of that slugging percentage being repeated are not in Rick's favor, especially not if he's exposed by playing every day.
I'm not trying to tear down Ankiel, or even Jeff Gordon. Neither would need to work 12 AM-8 AM shifts to make ends meet, so it's not that I'm being arrogant and claiming superiority here. I'm simply suggesting that Rick Ankiel is no Babe Ruth. In fact, he's not even Stan Musial. He's certainly a better option than Skip Schumaker, and if great expectations weren't unreasonably being heaped upon him, I'd be just fine with his presence on the big league roster, where he could effectively serve as a viable bench player, one capable of making productive pinch hit appearances and giving the regular outfielders at all three positions rest from time to time. Temper your expectations, you feel-good story seeking optimists.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
What Exactly is the Plan?
Things have been fairly confusing for Cardinal fans lately, what with the team constantly claiming that they're going to go out and acquire impact talent to win now even though all of us know that it won't happen. In fact, it can't happen; St. Louis's system just doesn't have the kind of talent (beyond Colby Rasmus) to go out and make a serious play for Johan Santana or Erik Bedard. Any real fan of the organization is perfectly aware of that, and that's why it was particularly refreshing (okay, and a little sad) to see long-time Cardinal stars-turned-antiques Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen sent away and players like So Taguchi putting on different uniforms (okay, that part wasn't sad so much as wonderful). This team needs to build for the future, because there isn't a whole lot it can do to be very competitive now. I'm perfectly willing to endure a couple of seasons like 2007 if it means the club will be able to rethink its approach and develop some successful major leaguers of its own.
A lot of things look to work in St. Louis's favor in terms of rebuilding. New general manager John Mozeliak seems to at least have a good grasp of minor league talent, there are several somewhat exciting young players (mostly relievers) working their way into the mix for '08 roster spots, and super prospect Colby Rasmus could find himself patrolling center field at Busch number 437 sometime very soon. Also encouraging are Tony La Russa's recent (and surprising) claims that he a) actually gives a shit about his leadoff hitter getting on base, even if he isn't fast, and b)Adam Kennedy isn't necessarily going to retain his starting job if he keeps making Christian Guzman look good. All of this makes for a healthy amount of guarded optimism.
But, wait! Why are overpriced veterans that could easily be replaced in terms of performance for much less money still getting contracts from a semi-rebuilding team? Some of these developments aren't likely to hurt the long term standing of the team, but some could. Handing nearly $3 million to a guy who projects to be the worst offensive starting shortstop in baseball (Caesar Izturis) seems more than ridiculous, and doling out $1.4 million to Aaron Miles, who anyone, seriously anyone in the farm system could replace is kind of revolting. This money money could certainly be spent better elsewhere, and those roster spots could go to young, inexpensive players who have at least some form of upside. If the Cards stop doing this sort of thing sooner rather than later, the organization is going to improve at a much quicker rate.
Another move that could certainly be considered questionable is the four-year, $15.5 million contract given to catcher Yadier Molina. Molina is absolutely all-world behind that plate. He handles pitchers well, blocks anything and everything flung in his general direction, and possesses a deadly accurate throwing arm capable of completely neutering running games. With a bat in his hand, though, Molina has been deadly in a different sort of way, although he's shown improvement. If he can find a way to somehow generate more power and hang on to the extra walks he coaxed a year ago, he'll be a perfectly acceptable starting catcher (although a deplorable number six hitter). If he has any other seasons that resemble 2006, though, those four years are going to feel a lot longer. Molina's still young, and he could piece together some semblance of an offensive presence, but he happens to be blocking Bryan Anderson, a young prospect who is something of Yadier's opposite. Anderson can hit, and he knows how to draw a walk. And hell, he's even left-handed and might wind up generating more power than he's shown yet as a 21 year-old. The jury is still out on this one, but it looks (at least for the time being) that the Cardinals have chosen Molina as their catcher of the future, not just the present. If that's the case, Anderson could find himself in another system sometime in the next year or two, and that feels dirty.
All complaints aside, things look like they are headed for a better place, and maybe an organization that has enjoyed a great deal of success can find its way back to center stage sooner than a lot of us anticipate, and do it in a different and more exciting way than we're used to.
A lot of things look to work in St. Louis's favor in terms of rebuilding. New general manager John Mozeliak seems to at least have a good grasp of minor league talent, there are several somewhat exciting young players (mostly relievers) working their way into the mix for '08 roster spots, and super prospect Colby Rasmus could find himself patrolling center field at Busch number 437 sometime very soon. Also encouraging are Tony La Russa's recent (and surprising) claims that he a) actually gives a shit about his leadoff hitter getting on base, even if he isn't fast, and b)Adam Kennedy isn't necessarily going to retain his starting job if he keeps making Christian Guzman look good. All of this makes for a healthy amount of guarded optimism.
But, wait! Why are overpriced veterans that could easily be replaced in terms of performance for much less money still getting contracts from a semi-rebuilding team? Some of these developments aren't likely to hurt the long term standing of the team, but some could. Handing nearly $3 million to a guy who projects to be the worst offensive starting shortstop in baseball (Caesar Izturis) seems more than ridiculous, and doling out $1.4 million to Aaron Miles, who anyone, seriously anyone in the farm system could replace is kind of revolting. This money money could certainly be spent better elsewhere, and those roster spots could go to young, inexpensive players who have at least some form of upside. If the Cards stop doing this sort of thing sooner rather than later, the organization is going to improve at a much quicker rate.
Another move that could certainly be considered questionable is the four-year, $15.5 million contract given to catcher Yadier Molina. Molina is absolutely all-world behind that plate. He handles pitchers well, blocks anything and everything flung in his general direction, and possesses a deadly accurate throwing arm capable of completely neutering running games. With a bat in his hand, though, Molina has been deadly in a different sort of way, although he's shown improvement. If he can find a way to somehow generate more power and hang on to the extra walks he coaxed a year ago, he'll be a perfectly acceptable starting catcher (although a deplorable number six hitter). If he has any other seasons that resemble 2006, though, those four years are going to feel a lot longer. Molina's still young, and he could piece together some semblance of an offensive presence, but he happens to be blocking Bryan Anderson, a young prospect who is something of Yadier's opposite. Anderson can hit, and he knows how to draw a walk. And hell, he's even left-handed and might wind up generating more power than he's shown yet as a 21 year-old. The jury is still out on this one, but it looks (at least for the time being) that the Cardinals have chosen Molina as their catcher of the future, not just the present. If that's the case, Anderson could find himself in another system sometime in the next year or two, and that feels dirty.
All complaints aside, things look like they are headed for a better place, and maybe an organization that has enjoyed a great deal of success can find its way back to center stage sooner than a lot of us anticipate, and do it in a different and more exciting way than we're used to.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
2008 Preview: Pitching
Having selected thirteen (mostly) awful position players to take up a little over half of the Opening Day roster, I am now left to throw in an additional dozen pitchers to round off the team I'd most prefer to see when the Cards break camp at the end of Spring Training. The same disclaimers that applied to the previous entry apply here: injuries or trade notwithstanding, these twelve players are the ones I would consider the most likely to succeed as big leaguers on my favorite team.
SP Adam Wainwright (R)
SP Matt Clement (R)
SP Joel Pineiro (R)
SP Braden Looper (R)
SP Mark Mulder (L)
RP Randy Flores (L)
RP Ryan Franklin (R)
RP Jason Isringhausen (R)
RP Tyler Johnson (L)
RP Russ Springer (R)
RP Brad Thompson (R)
RP Todd Wellemeyer (R)
Projecting the pitching is, for the most part, a useless activity, because most of it is already determined. The bullpen is always difficult to predict, because just about anything could happen by the end of March. A few names I did not include anywhere on this list you may have noticed: Anthony Reyes and Josh Kinney.
I fully expect Reyes to be on a different team by the time the regular season starts; his standing has decreased in the minds of those inside and outside the organization, and I think if St. Louis can find any kind of interest in him, he'll be gone. As far as I'm concerned, his upside is still big enough based on his minor league stats alone that he warrants another shot at proving himself. I can't imagine he's any less qualified to start than Looper; if he made the rotation, Looper could go back to being a reliever, bumping Brad Thompson from the roster, which needs to happen. Thompson very well may not be a part of the Cards' plans either, but he seems a more likely fit than Reyes at this point. As for Kinney, he went through Tommy John surgery in March of last year, and I couldn't find a single piece of news regarding his current health, so I have no reason to believe he'll be considered a bullpen candidate, although I'd gladly take him for that final spot over Thompson. I'd also take any random semi respectable minor league candidate over Thompson, for that matter.
Indeed, it's the minor league aspect of the equation that could make the bullpen situation interesting. The Cardinals have an assortment of interesting arms to call on that are, at worst, very nearly Major League ready, such as the following:
Kyle McClellan, 23, RHP
2007 AA - 2.35 ERA, 7.04 H/9, 0.59 HR/9, 1.76 BB/9, 8.80 K/9, 0.98 WHIP
The main problem with McClellan seems to be stuff. Aside from his strong showing at Palm Beach and Springfield last season, he's always displayed an affinity for giving up hits (although typically not the long ball at least), and his K totals have not always been so impressive over the course of his career.
Jason Motte, 25, RHP
2007 AA - 2.20 ERA, 6.61 H/9, 0.55 HR/9, 4.04 BB/9, 11.57 K/9, 1.18 WHIP
Motte's advanced age is deceiving; he began his minor league career in the Cards' organization in 2003 -- as a catcher. While his cumulative line as a hitter is laughable (.191/.220/.233), he was converted to a pitcher for the 2006 season, so his strong showing in Springfield is actually his fourth stop in just two seasons as a hurler, making his ascent through the system somewhat encouraging.
Chris Perez, 22, RHP
2007 AA - 2.43 ERA, 3.76 H/9, 0.66 HR/9, 6.20 BB/9, 13.72 K/9, 1.11 WHIP
Widely seen as one of the top Cardinal prospects, Perez actually did make the jump to AAA Memphis last season for 15 appearances, but the results weren't as good as they were at Springfield. While he continued to overpower hitters via the strikeout and limit base hits, his control problems increased to a dangerous extent, as he handed out nearly a walk per inning pitched. In fact, control has always plagued Perez throughout his career, as he averages 6.43 free passes per nine innings despite his other impressive peripherals.
Mark Worrell, 24, RHP
2007 AAA - 3.09 ERA, 7.79 H/9, 0.81 HR/9, 3.36 BB/9, 8.87 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
Worrell has advanced through the minors steadily, if not speedily, and will be 25 by Opening Day. After spending all of 2006 in Springfield, and all of 2007 in Memphis, it's unlikely he needs a whole lot more seasoning. At this point, he probably is what he is, and while his stats suffered a very slight decline in the move from AA to AAA, it appears that he at least deserves a shot to stick in the St. Louis bullpen. However, chances are if the Cards' brass was terribly impressed by him, he would have already gotten an opportunity.
While I believe any of these four would be worth a look in the pen, it's far from a safe bet La Russa will open the season with any of them. Don't be surprised if Thompson's cherubic ass makes the cut and claims the final spot.
SP Adam Wainwright (R)
SP Matt Clement (R)
SP Joel Pineiro (R)
SP Braden Looper (R)
SP Mark Mulder (L)
RP Randy Flores (L)
RP Ryan Franklin (R)
RP Jason Isringhausen (R)
RP Tyler Johnson (L)
RP Russ Springer (R)
RP Brad Thompson (R)
RP Todd Wellemeyer (R)
Projecting the pitching is, for the most part, a useless activity, because most of it is already determined. The bullpen is always difficult to predict, because just about anything could happen by the end of March. A few names I did not include anywhere on this list you may have noticed: Anthony Reyes and Josh Kinney.
I fully expect Reyes to be on a different team by the time the regular season starts; his standing has decreased in the minds of those inside and outside the organization, and I think if St. Louis can find any kind of interest in him, he'll be gone. As far as I'm concerned, his upside is still big enough based on his minor league stats alone that he warrants another shot at proving himself. I can't imagine he's any less qualified to start than Looper; if he made the rotation, Looper could go back to being a reliever, bumping Brad Thompson from the roster, which needs to happen. Thompson very well may not be a part of the Cards' plans either, but he seems a more likely fit than Reyes at this point. As for Kinney, he went through Tommy John surgery in March of last year, and I couldn't find a single piece of news regarding his current health, so I have no reason to believe he'll be considered a bullpen candidate, although I'd gladly take him for that final spot over Thompson. I'd also take any random semi respectable minor league candidate over Thompson, for that matter.
Indeed, it's the minor league aspect of the equation that could make the bullpen situation interesting. The Cardinals have an assortment of interesting arms to call on that are, at worst, very nearly Major League ready, such as the following:
Kyle McClellan, 23, RHP
2007 AA - 2.35 ERA, 7.04 H/9, 0.59 HR/9, 1.76 BB/9, 8.80 K/9, 0.98 WHIP
The main problem with McClellan seems to be stuff. Aside from his strong showing at Palm Beach and Springfield last season, he's always displayed an affinity for giving up hits (although typically not the long ball at least), and his K totals have not always been so impressive over the course of his career.
Jason Motte, 25, RHP
2007 AA - 2.20 ERA, 6.61 H/9, 0.55 HR/9, 4.04 BB/9, 11.57 K/9, 1.18 WHIP
Motte's advanced age is deceiving; he began his minor league career in the Cards' organization in 2003 -- as a catcher. While his cumulative line as a hitter is laughable (.191/.220/.233), he was converted to a pitcher for the 2006 season, so his strong showing in Springfield is actually his fourth stop in just two seasons as a hurler, making his ascent through the system somewhat encouraging.
Chris Perez, 22, RHP
2007 AA - 2.43 ERA, 3.76 H/9, 0.66 HR/9, 6.20 BB/9, 13.72 K/9, 1.11 WHIP
Widely seen as one of the top Cardinal prospects, Perez actually did make the jump to AAA Memphis last season for 15 appearances, but the results weren't as good as they were at Springfield. While he continued to overpower hitters via the strikeout and limit base hits, his control problems increased to a dangerous extent, as he handed out nearly a walk per inning pitched. In fact, control has always plagued Perez throughout his career, as he averages 6.43 free passes per nine innings despite his other impressive peripherals.
Mark Worrell, 24, RHP
2007 AAA - 3.09 ERA, 7.79 H/9, 0.81 HR/9, 3.36 BB/9, 8.87 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
Worrell has advanced through the minors steadily, if not speedily, and will be 25 by Opening Day. After spending all of 2006 in Springfield, and all of 2007 in Memphis, it's unlikely he needs a whole lot more seasoning. At this point, he probably is what he is, and while his stats suffered a very slight decline in the move from AA to AAA, it appears that he at least deserves a shot to stick in the St. Louis bullpen. However, chances are if the Cards' brass was terribly impressed by him, he would have already gotten an opportunity.
While I believe any of these four would be worth a look in the pen, it's far from a safe bet La Russa will open the season with any of them. Don't be surprised if Thompson's cherubic ass makes the cut and claims the final spot.
Friday, January 18, 2008
2008 Preview: Offense, Part Two
Knowing that Spencer was going to discuss how the 2008 Cardinal offense projects as of now, I already intended to sound off on the topic. One hitch did occur, however, as the starting lineup Spencer projected pretty much echoed the exact thoughts that were beginning to solidify in my brain. There is one important wild card, however, and his name is Colby Rasmus. While he hasn't touched Triple A yet, Rasmus could impress the team enough to stick as a big leaguer immediately. Most likely, though, he'll be optioned down regardless of anything he does in camp.
But by God, young Colby will be looming in the minds of Cardinal fans all season: Rasmus, or what we all believe Rasmus to be (a patient hitter with plus power and speed), sure could transform the lineup into something much more intriguing. His presence could also potentially allow Rick Ankiel to hit lower in the order, where his power would be of more value and his lack of patience would be less detrimental.
So, to reiterate, here is my ideal Redbird lineup, taking into account that no major league manager, especially Tony La Russa, is ever going to try that "in order of descending on-base percentage" thing, and that Cesar Izturis (sigh) is going to start at shortstop.
1-Brian Barton (R)
2-Chris Duncan (L)
3-Albert Pujols (R)
4-Troy Glaus (R)
5-Rick Ankiel (L)
6-Yadier Molina (R)
7-Adam Kennedy (L)
8-Cesar Izturis (S)
As much as I really want to see Barton make the team and start somewhere in the outfield until Rasmus gets the call, there is a much more sickening, likely option. La Russa's probably going to give the starting spot, even if Barton does make the club, to his best friend Skip Schumaker. I'm going to assume the worst for a moment and present you with what I'm afraid might happen.
1-Skip Schumaker (L)
2-Rick Ankiel (L)
3-Albert Pujols (R)
4-Troy Glaus (R)
5-Chris Duncan (L)
6-Yadier Molina (R)
7-Adam Kennedy (L)
8-Pitcher
9-Cesar Izturis (R)
But maybe there is a little hope to be had. Recently, when asked about what he values in the leadoff spot, La Russa said, "The number one asset is to get on base. Even if he is a slug, that's better than a guy who can run but can't get on base." Holy shit! A revelation! So maybe, just maybe, he'll realize that Brian Barton knows how to take a walk and Chris Duncan is going to find himself on the basepaths more frequently than Rick Ankiel. Things aren't looking great, but maybe there a few strides being made within this organization that we can all take solace in.
But by God, young Colby will be looming in the minds of Cardinal fans all season: Rasmus, or what we all believe Rasmus to be (a patient hitter with plus power and speed), sure could transform the lineup into something much more intriguing. His presence could also potentially allow Rick Ankiel to hit lower in the order, where his power would be of more value and his lack of patience would be less detrimental.
So, to reiterate, here is my ideal Redbird lineup, taking into account that no major league manager, especially Tony La Russa, is ever going to try that "in order of descending on-base percentage" thing, and that Cesar Izturis (sigh) is going to start at shortstop.
1-Brian Barton (R)
2-Chris Duncan (L)
3-Albert Pujols (R)
4-Troy Glaus (R)
5-Rick Ankiel (L)
6-Yadier Molina (R)
7-Adam Kennedy (L)
8-Cesar Izturis (S)
As much as I really want to see Barton make the team and start somewhere in the outfield until Rasmus gets the call, there is a much more sickening, likely option. La Russa's probably going to give the starting spot, even if Barton does make the club, to his best friend Skip Schumaker. I'm going to assume the worst for a moment and present you with what I'm afraid might happen.
1-Skip Schumaker (L)
2-Rick Ankiel (L)
3-Albert Pujols (R)
4-Troy Glaus (R)
5-Chris Duncan (L)
6-Yadier Molina (R)
7-Adam Kennedy (L)
8-Pitcher
9-Cesar Izturis (R)
But maybe there is a little hope to be had. Recently, when asked about what he values in the leadoff spot, La Russa said, "The number one asset is to get on base. Even if he is a slug, that's better than a guy who can run but can't get on base." Holy shit! A revelation! So maybe, just maybe, he'll realize that Brian Barton knows how to take a walk and Chris Duncan is going to find himself on the basepaths more frequently than Rick Ankiel. Things aren't looking great, but maybe there a few strides being made within this organization that we can all take solace in.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
2008 Preview: Offense
With the recent acquisition of Troy Glaus, the Cardinals appear to be mostly set for 2008. The results aren't good. Offensively (and defensively), St. Louis can only hope for a .500 caliber season of baseball, one in which playoff hopes exist only due to a weak division, and one in which only the emergence of young players (and Albert Pujols) makes it worth watching at all.
Assuming La Russa and company go with 13 position players out of Spring Training (a safe bet, as Tony loves having ample amount of pitchers in his bullpen so as to extend the length of every game tenfold), here is how it should break down, assuming no additional worthwhile talent is added between now and then. The following is, of course, purely subjective.
C Yadier Molina
1B Albert Pujols
2B Adam Kennedy
SS Cesar Izturis
3B Troy Glaus
LF Chris Duncan
CF Brian Barton
RF Rick Ankiel
C Jason LaRue
IF Aaron Miles
IF Brendan Ryan
IF/OF Scott Spiezio
OF Ryan Ludwick
Notable players left off the list include Skip Schumaker (terrible, should never find himself on any major league roster), Juan Encarnacion (blind), Josh Phelps (won't make team), D'Angelo Jimenez (a long shot, despite a better career OBP than Adam Kennedy by 22 points as well as a slight OPS+ advantage), and Brian Barden (oh, I said notable players).
There's absolutely a solid chance that Schumaker will make the roster over Barton, but that's ludicrous, as Barton has ability, most importantly patience and speed. Schumaker has neither, nor does he possess any baseball related skills at all. He can Skip his way right to hell. With the thirteen players locked in place, and the bench set, I will now proceed to throw out a batting order I would consider to be the most acceptable.
1 - Brian Barton (R)
2 - Chris Duncan (L)
3 - Albert Pujols (R)
4 - Troy Glaus (R)
5 - Rick Ankiel (L)
6 - Yadier Molina (R)
7 - Adam Kennedy (L)
8 - Cesar Izturis (S)
Let me make one thing clear: this is a terrible lineup. I'm not going to sit here and suggest I think anyone is going to be impressed by that disgrace. It's just that I don't see how it could be assembled any better. The only players with any ability to get on base are Duncan, Pujols, and Glaus, and they need to bat 2-3-4 just for power purposes, thus Barton wins the lead off slot by default because he has at least the potential to draw a walk and get on base ahead of the few players on the team who will have any real chance at driving in runs.
Still, any lineup where Molina hits sixth is in no way a legitimate one. There's no way to make excuses for this embarrassing collection of baseball players, but come Opening Day, I'm fairly confident that the lineup La Russa pencils in will somehow be worse.
Assuming La Russa and company go with 13 position players out of Spring Training (a safe bet, as Tony loves having ample amount of pitchers in his bullpen so as to extend the length of every game tenfold), here is how it should break down, assuming no additional worthwhile talent is added between now and then. The following is, of course, purely subjective.
C Yadier Molina
1B Albert Pujols
2B Adam Kennedy
SS Cesar Izturis
3B Troy Glaus
LF Chris Duncan
CF Brian Barton
RF Rick Ankiel
C Jason LaRue
IF Aaron Miles
IF Brendan Ryan
IF/OF Scott Spiezio
OF Ryan Ludwick
Notable players left off the list include Skip Schumaker (terrible, should never find himself on any major league roster), Juan Encarnacion (blind), Josh Phelps (won't make team), D'Angelo Jimenez (a long shot, despite a better career OBP than Adam Kennedy by 22 points as well as a slight OPS+ advantage), and Brian Barden (oh, I said notable players).
There's absolutely a solid chance that Schumaker will make the roster over Barton, but that's ludicrous, as Barton has ability, most importantly patience and speed. Schumaker has neither, nor does he possess any baseball related skills at all. He can Skip his way right to hell. With the thirteen players locked in place, and the bench set, I will now proceed to throw out a batting order I would consider to be the most acceptable.
1 - Brian Barton (R)
2 - Chris Duncan (L)
3 - Albert Pujols (R)
4 - Troy Glaus (R)
5 - Rick Ankiel (L)
6 - Yadier Molina (R)
7 - Adam Kennedy (L)
8 - Cesar Izturis (S)
Let me make one thing clear: this is a terrible lineup. I'm not going to sit here and suggest I think anyone is going to be impressed by that disgrace. It's just that I don't see how it could be assembled any better. The only players with any ability to get on base are Duncan, Pujols, and Glaus, and they need to bat 2-3-4 just for power purposes, thus Barton wins the lead off slot by default because he has at least the potential to draw a walk and get on base ahead of the few players on the team who will have any real chance at driving in runs.
Still, any lineup where Molina hits sixth is in no way a legitimate one. There's no way to make excuses for this embarrassing collection of baseball players, but come Opening Day, I'm fairly confident that the lineup La Russa pencils in will somehow be worse.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Dollars and No Sense
I know I'm sort of beating a dead horse here, but why is the free agent market so illogical? I'm not writing this as a general commentary; I intend to provide specifics, and what better place to start than with the fates of this off-season's crop of free agent center fielders.
Three somewhat big name center fielders hit the market after the 2007 season concluded, each with plenty of caveats: Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and the lessser-heralded Mike Cameron. All three were approached with different kinds of contracts in mind. Jones was signed to a two-year, $36.2 million deal by the Dodgers, Hunter was given $90 million over five years by the Angels, and Cameron was handed $7 million for a lone season with the Brewers. For me, all of this lead to a great deal of head scratching, and maybe even a little throwing up.
Let's start with Jones, who is coming off what is easily his worst season. Jones hit a paltry .222/.311/.413 in '07. Even with those statistics added in, his career line is much higher (.263/.342/.497), he's excellent at a difficult defensive position, and he's just 30. Jones is a very good bet to bounce back strong from his recent struggles; he enjoyed a plentiful power surge in 2005 and 2006, and maybe a change of scenery will even help. The Dodgers inked Jones to a two-year, $36.2 million deal, clearly scared off enough by his weak 2007 to commit to anything long-term. This deal isn't really that bad given today's free agent climate, although that annual pay rate is steep. But then again, in 2008 a center fielder who puts up a .900 OPS (which Jones could probably do again) and plays stellar defense (a given) might be worth about $18 million a season. The important thing to remember is that the Dodgers didn't backload the deal and screw themselves over in the long run. If Jones hits .270/.360/.560, they'll be getting a reasonable return on a big ticket item. If he flounders a bit, he's still a useful player and they're free of him after two seasons. In other words, if the Dodgers had to give Jones that much annually, they did a nice job of minimizing their risk.
Minimizing risk is an interesting concept, one that the Angels sure could care less about. A year after giving Gary Matthews a five-year, $50 million, the franchise decided to give Torii Hunter, who turns 33 during the 2008 season, a five-year deal of his own worth a whopping $90 million. Contract length, the very thing that made Jones' deal somewhat acceptable, makes Hunter's awful. While he was superior in 2007, Hunter at his best has never come close to equalling Jones' peak, and he never will. In fact, Hunter's career season in 2002 saw him post an OPS of .858, a figure only slightly higher than Jones's career OPS of .839 that includes a comically bad 2007. Hunter also depends largely on batting average as his means of getting on base, as he has never shown a high level of plate discipline. Additionally, despite his occasional web gems, Hunter is not the caliber of defender Jones is. While Hunter is a good, well-liked player, he doesn't have Jones' ceiling or track record, and he's very prone to injuries. It'll be extremely tough for him to maintain value over the duration of his five-year contract.
And then there's Mike Cameron, who recently has been involved in all sorts of silly conversations about his testing positive for a banned stimulant. There are some negatives that come to Milwaukee with Cameron. He'll have to serve a 25-game suspension for the aforementioned positive test, he's 35, and he's never hit for a high batting average. However, Cameron has always been extremely adept at drawing walks; he has a better career OBP than Hunter (Cameron's is .341, Hunter's is .324) despite his career batting average trailing Hunter's by 20 points (.271 to .251). If Hunter's batting average declines, which luck could even dictate, this will become increasingly apparent. Cameron also has a decent amount of power, and a move out of the cavernous Petco to Milwaukee can only help him clear the fences and plug the gaps more effectively. Cameron is a defensive force in center as well, rightfully capturing three Gold Gloves in his career thus far. Odds are, if this was a fair world and Gold Glove voting made any sense at all, Cameron would have a lot more than that. Base stealing, an often overrated art, is something Cameron does well enough to make it useful. Over the course of his time in the big leagues, he has stolen 272 bases in 346 attempts, good for a 78.6% success rate. Mike Cameron is quite simply a vastly underrated talent, even if he is a bit old. The Brewers are going to like what they get for $7 million, even if he's missing a portion of the season. It's really a wonder that more teams weren't in on the Cameron sweepstakes; he's been a fine player for a long time now, and his contract provides the best value of these three by a sizeable margin. The Cubs look awfully good in the NL Central, but watch out for the Brewers again.
If general managers were more careful, perhaps more teams would end up cashing in on deals like Cameron's instead of throwing piles and piles of money at players because they like the guy's smile or something. That Cameron makes about 39% of what Jones and Hunter do each season is sort of comical. The disparity in play between Jones and Cameron doesn't warrant that big of a difference, and one could make a solid case that M-Cam offers a better overall package than Hunter does. Let the buyer beware.
Three somewhat big name center fielders hit the market after the 2007 season concluded, each with plenty of caveats: Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and the lessser-heralded Mike Cameron. All three were approached with different kinds of contracts in mind. Jones was signed to a two-year, $36.2 million deal by the Dodgers, Hunter was given $90 million over five years by the Angels, and Cameron was handed $7 million for a lone season with the Brewers. For me, all of this lead to a great deal of head scratching, and maybe even a little throwing up.
Let's start with Jones, who is coming off what is easily his worst season. Jones hit a paltry .222/.311/.413 in '07. Even with those statistics added in, his career line is much higher (.263/.342/.497), he's excellent at a difficult defensive position, and he's just 30. Jones is a very good bet to bounce back strong from his recent struggles; he enjoyed a plentiful power surge in 2005 and 2006, and maybe a change of scenery will even help. The Dodgers inked Jones to a two-year, $36.2 million deal, clearly scared off enough by his weak 2007 to commit to anything long-term. This deal isn't really that bad given today's free agent climate, although that annual pay rate is steep. But then again, in 2008 a center fielder who puts up a .900 OPS (which Jones could probably do again) and plays stellar defense (a given) might be worth about $18 million a season. The important thing to remember is that the Dodgers didn't backload the deal and screw themselves over in the long run. If Jones hits .270/.360/.560, they'll be getting a reasonable return on a big ticket item. If he flounders a bit, he's still a useful player and they're free of him after two seasons. In other words, if the Dodgers had to give Jones that much annually, they did a nice job of minimizing their risk.
Minimizing risk is an interesting concept, one that the Angels sure could care less about. A year after giving Gary Matthews a five-year, $50 million, the franchise decided to give Torii Hunter, who turns 33 during the 2008 season, a five-year deal of his own worth a whopping $90 million. Contract length, the very thing that made Jones' deal somewhat acceptable, makes Hunter's awful. While he was superior in 2007, Hunter at his best has never come close to equalling Jones' peak, and he never will. In fact, Hunter's career season in 2002 saw him post an OPS of .858, a figure only slightly higher than Jones's career OPS of .839 that includes a comically bad 2007. Hunter also depends largely on batting average as his means of getting on base, as he has never shown a high level of plate discipline. Additionally, despite his occasional web gems, Hunter is not the caliber of defender Jones is. While Hunter is a good, well-liked player, he doesn't have Jones' ceiling or track record, and he's very prone to injuries. It'll be extremely tough for him to maintain value over the duration of his five-year contract.
And then there's Mike Cameron, who recently has been involved in all sorts of silly conversations about his testing positive for a banned stimulant. There are some negatives that come to Milwaukee with Cameron. He'll have to serve a 25-game suspension for the aforementioned positive test, he's 35, and he's never hit for a high batting average. However, Cameron has always been extremely adept at drawing walks; he has a better career OBP than Hunter (Cameron's is .341, Hunter's is .324) despite his career batting average trailing Hunter's by 20 points (.271 to .251). If Hunter's batting average declines, which luck could even dictate, this will become increasingly apparent. Cameron also has a decent amount of power, and a move out of the cavernous Petco to Milwaukee can only help him clear the fences and plug the gaps more effectively. Cameron is a defensive force in center as well, rightfully capturing three Gold Gloves in his career thus far. Odds are, if this was a fair world and Gold Glove voting made any sense at all, Cameron would have a lot more than that. Base stealing, an often overrated art, is something Cameron does well enough to make it useful. Over the course of his time in the big leagues, he has stolen 272 bases in 346 attempts, good for a 78.6% success rate. Mike Cameron is quite simply a vastly underrated talent, even if he is a bit old. The Brewers are going to like what they get for $7 million, even if he's missing a portion of the season. It's really a wonder that more teams weren't in on the Cameron sweepstakes; he's been a fine player for a long time now, and his contract provides the best value of these three by a sizeable margin. The Cubs look awfully good in the NL Central, but watch out for the Brewers again.
If general managers were more careful, perhaps more teams would end up cashing in on deals like Cameron's instead of throwing piles and piles of money at players because they like the guy's smile or something. That Cameron makes about 39% of what Jones and Hunter do each season is sort of comical. The disparity in play between Jones and Cameron doesn't warrant that big of a difference, and one could make a solid case that M-Cam offers a better overall package than Hunter does. Let the buyer beware.
The "Hot" Corner
With Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus reportedly both passing his respective physical today, the trade between the Cardinals and Blue Jays should be formally announced at any moment. While Cardinal fans have no reason to be elated about this unique one-for-one swap, it's certainly not a bad deal on the surface. Obviously, each player is an injury risk, so there are a lot of variables involved. All things considered, though, both players earning roughly $12 million a year, Glaus for two seasons is a safer bet than Rolen for three. At this point, Glaus is probably a more useful offensive player than Rolen, he's a little over a year younger, and none of his injuries have ever drained his power enough to result in the abysmal slugging percentages Rolen has been posting in recent times. For example, Rolen has slugged under .400 in two of his last three seasons. Glaus, conversely, has never slugged anywhere near that low in his entire career aside from his .291 showing in 165 at bats as a rookie in 1998. Overall, if you're wondering which player is a more reliable run producer at this stage of their careers, the answer is Troy Glaus, making the trade an acceptable one.
Of course, there are other motivations for the deal, such as the fact that Scott Rolen all but refused to play baseball in St. Louis anymore. It's a fitting punishment for him to go spend three seasons in Canada, playing for a team that couldn't finish higher than third in the division even if they ruled. There are also the defensive implications of the deal. Rolen is a world class defender at third, whereas Glaus is merely adequate. I don't really think the defensive discrepancy is all that pertinent, though. It's unlikely that losing Rolen and his seven Gold Gloves is going to result in a worse overall record; after all, third base is not exactly considered a skill position. Power is first and foremost what a successful team needs to get from the corner spots, and Glaus is a more consistent offensive force, albeit one with a lower ceiling.
The promising aspect of this trade is that while Glaus, too, has suffered from injuries that make his durability an issue, at least he's always stayed somewhat productive when he does play. Last year, when he battled an assortment of foot and leg related problems, he was still quite useful, hitting .262/.366/.473, good for an OPS+ of 120, very near his career total of 121, whi
ch is narrowly beaten by Rolen's 126. These totals would seem to indicate that the two are not as far apart in terms of offensive talent as one would tend to believe on reputation alone. For one, Glaus is an extremely patient hitter, drawing 701 walks in 5,203 plate appearances, good for a BB/PA rate of .135. In comparison, Rolen's rate is only .113. It's not that Rolen is poor at drawing walks necessarily, but Glaus has always been extremely adept at reaching base via the free pass. Of course, he doesn't hit for the average Rolen does, so in terms of overall OBP, Rolen gets the slight nod (.372 to .358), but a player who earns his OBP through walks is more valuable than a player who gets it through batting average, a far more luck based stat. The bottom line is, the worst case scenario for each player is something you'd give Glaus the nod in. Rolen could be as bad as .260/.330/.390, whereas there's no reason to believe Glaus could possibly post worse than .250/.350/.450. Rolen's still the more talented player of the two, but the odds of him finding his pre 2005 form aren't that likely. While Glaus is hardly an ideal middle of the order solution, he's a more viable clean up hitter than Rolen currently. I'm just saying, he'd be fucking perfect as a six hitter if the lineup was deep enough (it isn't).
With this trade, the 2008 Cardinals are probably pretty much set. There may be a few small spring surprises, or even another trade or two beforehand, but ultimately, what you see is what you get, and that's not an especially good thing. I will return soon with a relatively thorough preview of the team's projected offense and defense, likely to be broken up in two parts. Check back soon.
Of course, there are other motivations for the deal, such as the fact that Scott Rolen all but refused to play baseball in St. Louis anymore. It's a fitting punishment for him to go spend three seasons in Canada, playing for a team that couldn't finish higher than third in the division even if they ruled. There are also the defensive implications of the deal. Rolen is a world class defender at third, whereas Glaus is merely adequate. I don't really think the defensive discrepancy is all that pertinent, though. It's unlikely that losing Rolen and his seven Gold Gloves is going to result in a worse overall record; after all, third base is not exactly considered a skill position. Power is first and foremost what a successful team needs to get from the corner spots, and Glaus is a more consistent offensive force, albeit one with a lower ceiling.
The promising aspect of this trade is that while Glaus, too, has suffered from injuries that make his durability an issue, at least he's always stayed somewhat productive when he does play. Last year, when he battled an assortment of foot and leg related problems, he was still quite useful, hitting .262/.366/.473, good for an OPS+ of 120, very near his career total of 121, whi
ch is narrowly beaten by Rolen's 126. These totals would seem to indicate that the two are not as far apart in terms of offensive talent as one would tend to believe on reputation alone. For one, Glaus is an extremely patient hitter, drawing 701 walks in 5,203 plate appearances, good for a BB/PA rate of .135. In comparison, Rolen's rate is only .113. It's not that Rolen is poor at drawing walks necessarily, but Glaus has always been extremely adept at reaching base via the free pass. Of course, he doesn't hit for the average Rolen does, so in terms of overall OBP, Rolen gets the slight nod (.372 to .358), but a player who earns his OBP through walks is more valuable than a player who gets it through batting average, a far more luck based stat. The bottom line is, the worst case scenario for each player is something you'd give Glaus the nod in. Rolen could be as bad as .260/.330/.390, whereas there's no reason to believe Glaus could possibly post worse than .250/.350/.450. Rolen's still the more talented player of the two, but the odds of him finding his pre 2005 form aren't that likely. While Glaus is hardly an ideal middle of the order solution, he's a more viable clean up hitter than Rolen currently. I'm just saying, he'd be fucking perfect as a six hitter if the lineup was deep enough (it isn't).With this trade, the 2008 Cardinals are probably pretty much set. There may be a few small spring surprises, or even another trade or two beforehand, but ultimately, what you see is what you get, and that's not an especially good thing. I will return soon with a relatively thorough preview of the team's projected offense and defense, likely to be broken up in two parts. Check back soon.
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