Things have been fairly confusing for Cardinal fans lately, what with the team constantly claiming that they're going to go out and acquire impact talent to win now even though all of us know that it won't happen. In fact, it can't happen; St. Louis's system just doesn't have the kind of talent (beyond Colby Rasmus) to go out and make a serious play for Johan Santana or Erik Bedard. Any real fan of the organization is perfectly aware of that, and that's why it was particularly refreshing (okay, and a little sad) to see long-time Cardinal stars-turned-antiques Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen sent away and players like So Taguchi putting on different uniforms (okay, that part wasn't sad so much as wonderful). This team needs to build for the future, because there isn't a whole lot it can do to be very competitive now. I'm perfectly willing to endure a couple of seasons like 2007 if it means the club will be able to rethink its approach and develop some successful major leaguers of its own.
A lot of things look to work in St. Louis's favor in terms of rebuilding. New general manager John Mozeliak seems to at least have a good grasp of minor league talent, there are several somewhat exciting young players (mostly relievers) working their way into the mix for '08 roster spots, and super prospect Colby Rasmus could find himself patrolling center field at Busch number 437 sometime very soon. Also encouraging are Tony La Russa's recent (and surprising) claims that he a) actually gives a shit about his leadoff hitter getting on base, even if he isn't fast, and b)Adam Kennedy isn't necessarily going to retain his starting job if he keeps making Christian Guzman look good. All of this makes for a healthy amount of guarded optimism.
But, wait! Why are overpriced veterans that could easily be replaced in terms of performance for much less money still getting contracts from a semi-rebuilding team? Some of these developments aren't likely to hurt the long term standing of the team, but some could. Handing nearly $3 million to a guy who projects to be the worst offensive starting shortstop in baseball (Caesar Izturis) seems more than ridiculous, and doling out $1.4 million to Aaron Miles, who anyone, seriously anyone in the farm system could replace is kind of revolting. This money money could certainly be spent better elsewhere, and those roster spots could go to young, inexpensive players who have at least some form of upside. If the Cards stop doing this sort of thing sooner rather than later, the organization is going to improve at a much quicker rate.
Another move that could certainly be considered questionable is the four-year, $15.5 million contract given to catcher Yadier Molina. Molina is absolutely all-world behind that plate. He handles pitchers well, blocks anything and everything flung in his general direction, and possesses a deadly accurate throwing arm capable of completely neutering running games. With a bat in his hand, though, Molina has been deadly in a different sort of way, although he's shown improvement. If he can find a way to somehow generate more power and hang on to the extra walks he coaxed a year ago, he'll be a perfectly acceptable starting catcher (although a deplorable number six hitter). If he has any other seasons that resemble 2006, though, those four years are going to feel a lot longer. Molina's still young, and he could piece together some semblance of an offensive presence, but he happens to be blocking Bryan Anderson, a young prospect who is something of Yadier's opposite. Anderson can hit, and he knows how to draw a walk. And hell, he's even left-handed and might wind up generating more power than he's shown yet as a 21 year-old. The jury is still out on this one, but it looks (at least for the time being) that the Cardinals have chosen Molina as their catcher of the future, not just the present. If that's the case, Anderson could find himself in another system sometime in the next year or two, and that feels dirty.
All complaints aside, things look like they are headed for a better place, and maybe an organization that has enjoyed a great deal of success can find its way back to center stage sooner than a lot of us anticipate, and do it in a different and more exciting way than we're used to.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Saturday, January 19, 2008
2008 Preview: Pitching
Having selected thirteen (mostly) awful position players to take up a little over half of the Opening Day roster, I am now left to throw in an additional dozen pitchers to round off the team I'd most prefer to see when the Cards break camp at the end of Spring Training. The same disclaimers that applied to the previous entry apply here: injuries or trade notwithstanding, these twelve players are the ones I would consider the most likely to succeed as big leaguers on my favorite team.
SP Adam Wainwright (R)
SP Matt Clement (R)
SP Joel Pineiro (R)
SP Braden Looper (R)
SP Mark Mulder (L)
RP Randy Flores (L)
RP Ryan Franklin (R)
RP Jason Isringhausen (R)
RP Tyler Johnson (L)
RP Russ Springer (R)
RP Brad Thompson (R)
RP Todd Wellemeyer (R)
Projecting the pitching is, for the most part, a useless activity, because most of it is already determined. The bullpen is always difficult to predict, because just about anything could happen by the end of March. A few names I did not include anywhere on this list you may have noticed: Anthony Reyes and Josh Kinney.
I fully expect Reyes to be on a different team by the time the regular season starts; his standing has decreased in the minds of those inside and outside the organization, and I think if St. Louis can find any kind of interest in him, he'll be gone. As far as I'm concerned, his upside is still big enough based on his minor league stats alone that he warrants another shot at proving himself. I can't imagine he's any less qualified to start than Looper; if he made the rotation, Looper could go back to being a reliever, bumping Brad Thompson from the roster, which needs to happen. Thompson very well may not be a part of the Cards' plans either, but he seems a more likely fit than Reyes at this point. As for Kinney, he went through Tommy John surgery in March of last year, and I couldn't find a single piece of news regarding his current health, so I have no reason to believe he'll be considered a bullpen candidate, although I'd gladly take him for that final spot over Thompson. I'd also take any random semi respectable minor league candidate over Thompson, for that matter.
Indeed, it's the minor league aspect of the equation that could make the bullpen situation interesting. The Cardinals have an assortment of interesting arms to call on that are, at worst, very nearly Major League ready, such as the following:
Kyle McClellan, 23, RHP
2007 AA - 2.35 ERA, 7.04 H/9, 0.59 HR/9, 1.76 BB/9, 8.80 K/9, 0.98 WHIP
The main problem with McClellan seems to be stuff. Aside from his strong showing at Palm Beach and Springfield last season, he's always displayed an affinity for giving up hits (although typically not the long ball at least), and his K totals have not always been so impressive over the course of his career.
Jason Motte, 25, RHP
2007 AA - 2.20 ERA, 6.61 H/9, 0.55 HR/9, 4.04 BB/9, 11.57 K/9, 1.18 WHIP
Motte's advanced age is deceiving; he began his minor league career in the Cards' organization in 2003 -- as a catcher. While his cumulative line as a hitter is laughable (.191/.220/.233), he was converted to a pitcher for the 2006 season, so his strong showing in Springfield is actually his fourth stop in just two seasons as a hurler, making his ascent through the system somewhat encouraging.
Chris Perez, 22, RHP
2007 AA - 2.43 ERA, 3.76 H/9, 0.66 HR/9, 6.20 BB/9, 13.72 K/9, 1.11 WHIP
Widely seen as one of the top Cardinal prospects, Perez actually did make the jump to AAA Memphis last season for 15 appearances, but the results weren't as good as they were at Springfield. While he continued to overpower hitters via the strikeout and limit base hits, his control problems increased to a dangerous extent, as he handed out nearly a walk per inning pitched. In fact, control has always plagued Perez throughout his career, as he averages 6.43 free passes per nine innings despite his other impressive peripherals.
Mark Worrell, 24, RHP
2007 AAA - 3.09 ERA, 7.79 H/9, 0.81 HR/9, 3.36 BB/9, 8.87 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
Worrell has advanced through the minors steadily, if not speedily, and will be 25 by Opening Day. After spending all of 2006 in Springfield, and all of 2007 in Memphis, it's unlikely he needs a whole lot more seasoning. At this point, he probably is what he is, and while his stats suffered a very slight decline in the move from AA to AAA, it appears that he at least deserves a shot to stick in the St. Louis bullpen. However, chances are if the Cards' brass was terribly impressed by him, he would have already gotten an opportunity.
While I believe any of these four would be worth a look in the pen, it's far from a safe bet La Russa will open the season with any of them. Don't be surprised if Thompson's cherubic ass makes the cut and claims the final spot.
SP Adam Wainwright (R)
SP Matt Clement (R)
SP Joel Pineiro (R)
SP Braden Looper (R)
SP Mark Mulder (L)
RP Randy Flores (L)
RP Ryan Franklin (R)
RP Jason Isringhausen (R)
RP Tyler Johnson (L)
RP Russ Springer (R)
RP Brad Thompson (R)
RP Todd Wellemeyer (R)
Projecting the pitching is, for the most part, a useless activity, because most of it is already determined. The bullpen is always difficult to predict, because just about anything could happen by the end of March. A few names I did not include anywhere on this list you may have noticed: Anthony Reyes and Josh Kinney.
I fully expect Reyes to be on a different team by the time the regular season starts; his standing has decreased in the minds of those inside and outside the organization, and I think if St. Louis can find any kind of interest in him, he'll be gone. As far as I'm concerned, his upside is still big enough based on his minor league stats alone that he warrants another shot at proving himself. I can't imagine he's any less qualified to start than Looper; if he made the rotation, Looper could go back to being a reliever, bumping Brad Thompson from the roster, which needs to happen. Thompson very well may not be a part of the Cards' plans either, but he seems a more likely fit than Reyes at this point. As for Kinney, he went through Tommy John surgery in March of last year, and I couldn't find a single piece of news regarding his current health, so I have no reason to believe he'll be considered a bullpen candidate, although I'd gladly take him for that final spot over Thompson. I'd also take any random semi respectable minor league candidate over Thompson, for that matter.
Indeed, it's the minor league aspect of the equation that could make the bullpen situation interesting. The Cardinals have an assortment of interesting arms to call on that are, at worst, very nearly Major League ready, such as the following:
Kyle McClellan, 23, RHP
2007 AA - 2.35 ERA, 7.04 H/9, 0.59 HR/9, 1.76 BB/9, 8.80 K/9, 0.98 WHIP
The main problem with McClellan seems to be stuff. Aside from his strong showing at Palm Beach and Springfield last season, he's always displayed an affinity for giving up hits (although typically not the long ball at least), and his K totals have not always been so impressive over the course of his career.
Jason Motte, 25, RHP
2007 AA - 2.20 ERA, 6.61 H/9, 0.55 HR/9, 4.04 BB/9, 11.57 K/9, 1.18 WHIP
Motte's advanced age is deceiving; he began his minor league career in the Cards' organization in 2003 -- as a catcher. While his cumulative line as a hitter is laughable (.191/.220/.233), he was converted to a pitcher for the 2006 season, so his strong showing in Springfield is actually his fourth stop in just two seasons as a hurler, making his ascent through the system somewhat encouraging.
Chris Perez, 22, RHP
2007 AA - 2.43 ERA, 3.76 H/9, 0.66 HR/9, 6.20 BB/9, 13.72 K/9, 1.11 WHIP
Widely seen as one of the top Cardinal prospects, Perez actually did make the jump to AAA Memphis last season for 15 appearances, but the results weren't as good as they were at Springfield. While he continued to overpower hitters via the strikeout and limit base hits, his control problems increased to a dangerous extent, as he handed out nearly a walk per inning pitched. In fact, control has always plagued Perez throughout his career, as he averages 6.43 free passes per nine innings despite his other impressive peripherals.
Mark Worrell, 24, RHP
2007 AAA - 3.09 ERA, 7.79 H/9, 0.81 HR/9, 3.36 BB/9, 8.87 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
Worrell has advanced through the minors steadily, if not speedily, and will be 25 by Opening Day. After spending all of 2006 in Springfield, and all of 2007 in Memphis, it's unlikely he needs a whole lot more seasoning. At this point, he probably is what he is, and while his stats suffered a very slight decline in the move from AA to AAA, it appears that he at least deserves a shot to stick in the St. Louis bullpen. However, chances are if the Cards' brass was terribly impressed by him, he would have already gotten an opportunity.
While I believe any of these four would be worth a look in the pen, it's far from a safe bet La Russa will open the season with any of them. Don't be surprised if Thompson's cherubic ass makes the cut and claims the final spot.
Friday, January 18, 2008
2008 Preview: Offense, Part Two
Knowing that Spencer was going to discuss how the 2008 Cardinal offense projects as of now, I already intended to sound off on the topic. One hitch did occur, however, as the starting lineup Spencer projected pretty much echoed the exact thoughts that were beginning to solidify in my brain. There is one important wild card, however, and his name is Colby Rasmus. While he hasn't touched Triple A yet, Rasmus could impress the team enough to stick as a big leaguer immediately. Most likely, though, he'll be optioned down regardless of anything he does in camp.
But by God, young Colby will be looming in the minds of Cardinal fans all season: Rasmus, or what we all believe Rasmus to be (a patient hitter with plus power and speed), sure could transform the lineup into something much more intriguing. His presence could also potentially allow Rick Ankiel to hit lower in the order, where his power would be of more value and his lack of patience would be less detrimental.
So, to reiterate, here is my ideal Redbird lineup, taking into account that no major league manager, especially Tony La Russa, is ever going to try that "in order of descending on-base percentage" thing, and that Cesar Izturis (sigh) is going to start at shortstop.
1-Brian Barton (R)
2-Chris Duncan (L)
3-Albert Pujols (R)
4-Troy Glaus (R)
5-Rick Ankiel (L)
6-Yadier Molina (R)
7-Adam Kennedy (L)
8-Cesar Izturis (S)
As much as I really want to see Barton make the team and start somewhere in the outfield until Rasmus gets the call, there is a much more sickening, likely option. La Russa's probably going to give the starting spot, even if Barton does make the club, to his best friend Skip Schumaker. I'm going to assume the worst for a moment and present you with what I'm afraid might happen.
1-Skip Schumaker (L)
2-Rick Ankiel (L)
3-Albert Pujols (R)
4-Troy Glaus (R)
5-Chris Duncan (L)
6-Yadier Molina (R)
7-Adam Kennedy (L)
8-Pitcher
9-Cesar Izturis (R)
But maybe there is a little hope to be had. Recently, when asked about what he values in the leadoff spot, La Russa said, "The number one asset is to get on base. Even if he is a slug, that's better than a guy who can run but can't get on base." Holy shit! A revelation! So maybe, just maybe, he'll realize that Brian Barton knows how to take a walk and Chris Duncan is going to find himself on the basepaths more frequently than Rick Ankiel. Things aren't looking great, but maybe there a few strides being made within this organization that we can all take solace in.
But by God, young Colby will be looming in the minds of Cardinal fans all season: Rasmus, or what we all believe Rasmus to be (a patient hitter with plus power and speed), sure could transform the lineup into something much more intriguing. His presence could also potentially allow Rick Ankiel to hit lower in the order, where his power would be of more value and his lack of patience would be less detrimental.
So, to reiterate, here is my ideal Redbird lineup, taking into account that no major league manager, especially Tony La Russa, is ever going to try that "in order of descending on-base percentage" thing, and that Cesar Izturis (sigh) is going to start at shortstop.
1-Brian Barton (R)
2-Chris Duncan (L)
3-Albert Pujols (R)
4-Troy Glaus (R)
5-Rick Ankiel (L)
6-Yadier Molina (R)
7-Adam Kennedy (L)
8-Cesar Izturis (S)
As much as I really want to see Barton make the team and start somewhere in the outfield until Rasmus gets the call, there is a much more sickening, likely option. La Russa's probably going to give the starting spot, even if Barton does make the club, to his best friend Skip Schumaker. I'm going to assume the worst for a moment and present you with what I'm afraid might happen.
1-Skip Schumaker (L)
2-Rick Ankiel (L)
3-Albert Pujols (R)
4-Troy Glaus (R)
5-Chris Duncan (L)
6-Yadier Molina (R)
7-Adam Kennedy (L)
8-Pitcher
9-Cesar Izturis (R)
But maybe there is a little hope to be had. Recently, when asked about what he values in the leadoff spot, La Russa said, "The number one asset is to get on base. Even if he is a slug, that's better than a guy who can run but can't get on base." Holy shit! A revelation! So maybe, just maybe, he'll realize that Brian Barton knows how to take a walk and Chris Duncan is going to find himself on the basepaths more frequently than Rick Ankiel. Things aren't looking great, but maybe there a few strides being made within this organization that we can all take solace in.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
2008 Preview: Offense
With the recent acquisition of Troy Glaus, the Cardinals appear to be mostly set for 2008. The results aren't good. Offensively (and defensively), St. Louis can only hope for a .500 caliber season of baseball, one in which playoff hopes exist only due to a weak division, and one in which only the emergence of young players (and Albert Pujols) makes it worth watching at all.
Assuming La Russa and company go with 13 position players out of Spring Training (a safe bet, as Tony loves having ample amount of pitchers in his bullpen so as to extend the length of every game tenfold), here is how it should break down, assuming no additional worthwhile talent is added between now and then. The following is, of course, purely subjective.
C Yadier Molina
1B Albert Pujols
2B Adam Kennedy
SS Cesar Izturis
3B Troy Glaus
LF Chris Duncan
CF Brian Barton
RF Rick Ankiel
C Jason LaRue
IF Aaron Miles
IF Brendan Ryan
IF/OF Scott Spiezio
OF Ryan Ludwick
Notable players left off the list include Skip Schumaker (terrible, should never find himself on any major league roster), Juan Encarnacion (blind), Josh Phelps (won't make team), D'Angelo Jimenez (a long shot, despite a better career OBP than Adam Kennedy by 22 points as well as a slight OPS+ advantage), and Brian Barden (oh, I said notable players).
There's absolutely a solid chance that Schumaker will make the roster over Barton, but that's ludicrous, as Barton has ability, most importantly patience and speed. Schumaker has neither, nor does he possess any baseball related skills at all. He can Skip his way right to hell. With the thirteen players locked in place, and the bench set, I will now proceed to throw out a batting order I would consider to be the most acceptable.
1 - Brian Barton (R)
2 - Chris Duncan (L)
3 - Albert Pujols (R)
4 - Troy Glaus (R)
5 - Rick Ankiel (L)
6 - Yadier Molina (R)
7 - Adam Kennedy (L)
8 - Cesar Izturis (S)
Let me make one thing clear: this is a terrible lineup. I'm not going to sit here and suggest I think anyone is going to be impressed by that disgrace. It's just that I don't see how it could be assembled any better. The only players with any ability to get on base are Duncan, Pujols, and Glaus, and they need to bat 2-3-4 just for power purposes, thus Barton wins the lead off slot by default because he has at least the potential to draw a walk and get on base ahead of the few players on the team who will have any real chance at driving in runs.
Still, any lineup where Molina hits sixth is in no way a legitimate one. There's no way to make excuses for this embarrassing collection of baseball players, but come Opening Day, I'm fairly confident that the lineup La Russa pencils in will somehow be worse.
Assuming La Russa and company go with 13 position players out of Spring Training (a safe bet, as Tony loves having ample amount of pitchers in his bullpen so as to extend the length of every game tenfold), here is how it should break down, assuming no additional worthwhile talent is added between now and then. The following is, of course, purely subjective.
C Yadier Molina
1B Albert Pujols
2B Adam Kennedy
SS Cesar Izturis
3B Troy Glaus
LF Chris Duncan
CF Brian Barton
RF Rick Ankiel
C Jason LaRue
IF Aaron Miles
IF Brendan Ryan
IF/OF Scott Spiezio
OF Ryan Ludwick
Notable players left off the list include Skip Schumaker (terrible, should never find himself on any major league roster), Juan Encarnacion (blind), Josh Phelps (won't make team), D'Angelo Jimenez (a long shot, despite a better career OBP than Adam Kennedy by 22 points as well as a slight OPS+ advantage), and Brian Barden (oh, I said notable players).
There's absolutely a solid chance that Schumaker will make the roster over Barton, but that's ludicrous, as Barton has ability, most importantly patience and speed. Schumaker has neither, nor does he possess any baseball related skills at all. He can Skip his way right to hell. With the thirteen players locked in place, and the bench set, I will now proceed to throw out a batting order I would consider to be the most acceptable.
1 - Brian Barton (R)
2 - Chris Duncan (L)
3 - Albert Pujols (R)
4 - Troy Glaus (R)
5 - Rick Ankiel (L)
6 - Yadier Molina (R)
7 - Adam Kennedy (L)
8 - Cesar Izturis (S)
Let me make one thing clear: this is a terrible lineup. I'm not going to sit here and suggest I think anyone is going to be impressed by that disgrace. It's just that I don't see how it could be assembled any better. The only players with any ability to get on base are Duncan, Pujols, and Glaus, and they need to bat 2-3-4 just for power purposes, thus Barton wins the lead off slot by default because he has at least the potential to draw a walk and get on base ahead of the few players on the team who will have any real chance at driving in runs.
Still, any lineup where Molina hits sixth is in no way a legitimate one. There's no way to make excuses for this embarrassing collection of baseball players, but come Opening Day, I'm fairly confident that the lineup La Russa pencils in will somehow be worse.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Dollars and No Sense
I know I'm sort of beating a dead horse here, but why is the free agent market so illogical? I'm not writing this as a general commentary; I intend to provide specifics, and what better place to start than with the fates of this off-season's crop of free agent center fielders.
Three somewhat big name center fielders hit the market after the 2007 season concluded, each with plenty of caveats: Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and the lessser-heralded Mike Cameron. All three were approached with different kinds of contracts in mind. Jones was signed to a two-year, $36.2 million deal by the Dodgers, Hunter was given $90 million over five years by the Angels, and Cameron was handed $7 million for a lone season with the Brewers. For me, all of this lead to a great deal of head scratching, and maybe even a little throwing up.
Let's start with Jones, who is coming off what is easily his worst season. Jones hit a paltry .222/.311/.413 in '07. Even with those statistics added in, his career line is much higher (.263/.342/.497), he's excellent at a difficult defensive position, and he's just 30. Jones is a very good bet to bounce back strong from his recent struggles; he enjoyed a plentiful power surge in 2005 and 2006, and maybe a change of scenery will even help. The Dodgers inked Jones to a two-year, $36.2 million deal, clearly scared off enough by his weak 2007 to commit to anything long-term. This deal isn't really that bad given today's free agent climate, although that annual pay rate is steep. But then again, in 2008 a center fielder who puts up a .900 OPS (which Jones could probably do again) and plays stellar defense (a given) might be worth about $18 million a season. The important thing to remember is that the Dodgers didn't backload the deal and screw themselves over in the long run. If Jones hits .270/.360/.560, they'll be getting a reasonable return on a big ticket item. If he flounders a bit, he's still a useful player and they're free of him after two seasons. In other words, if the Dodgers had to give Jones that much annually, they did a nice job of minimizing their risk.
Minimizing risk is an interesting concept, one that the Angels sure could care less about. A year after giving Gary Matthews a five-year, $50 million, the franchise decided to give Torii Hunter, who turns 33 during the 2008 season, a five-year deal of his own worth a whopping $90 million. Contract length, the very thing that made Jones' deal somewhat acceptable, makes Hunter's awful. While he was superior in 2007, Hunter at his best has never come close to equalling Jones' peak, and he never will. In fact, Hunter's career season in 2002 saw him post an OPS of .858, a figure only slightly higher than Jones's career OPS of .839 that includes a comically bad 2007. Hunter also depends largely on batting average as his means of getting on base, as he has never shown a high level of plate discipline. Additionally, despite his occasional web gems, Hunter is not the caliber of defender Jones is. While Hunter is a good, well-liked player, he doesn't have Jones' ceiling or track record, and he's very prone to injuries. It'll be extremely tough for him to maintain value over the duration of his five-year contract.
And then there's Mike Cameron, who recently has been involved in all sorts of silly conversations about his testing positive for a banned stimulant. There are some negatives that come to Milwaukee with Cameron. He'll have to serve a 25-game suspension for the aforementioned positive test, he's 35, and he's never hit for a high batting average. However, Cameron has always been extremely adept at drawing walks; he has a better career OBP than Hunter (Cameron's is .341, Hunter's is .324) despite his career batting average trailing Hunter's by 20 points (.271 to .251). If Hunter's batting average declines, which luck could even dictate, this will become increasingly apparent. Cameron also has a decent amount of power, and a move out of the cavernous Petco to Milwaukee can only help him clear the fences and plug the gaps more effectively. Cameron is a defensive force in center as well, rightfully capturing three Gold Gloves in his career thus far. Odds are, if this was a fair world and Gold Glove voting made any sense at all, Cameron would have a lot more than that. Base stealing, an often overrated art, is something Cameron does well enough to make it useful. Over the course of his time in the big leagues, he has stolen 272 bases in 346 attempts, good for a 78.6% success rate. Mike Cameron is quite simply a vastly underrated talent, even if he is a bit old. The Brewers are going to like what they get for $7 million, even if he's missing a portion of the season. It's really a wonder that more teams weren't in on the Cameron sweepstakes; he's been a fine player for a long time now, and his contract provides the best value of these three by a sizeable margin. The Cubs look awfully good in the NL Central, but watch out for the Brewers again.
If general managers were more careful, perhaps more teams would end up cashing in on deals like Cameron's instead of throwing piles and piles of money at players because they like the guy's smile or something. That Cameron makes about 39% of what Jones and Hunter do each season is sort of comical. The disparity in play between Jones and Cameron doesn't warrant that big of a difference, and one could make a solid case that M-Cam offers a better overall package than Hunter does. Let the buyer beware.
Three somewhat big name center fielders hit the market after the 2007 season concluded, each with plenty of caveats: Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and the lessser-heralded Mike Cameron. All three were approached with different kinds of contracts in mind. Jones was signed to a two-year, $36.2 million deal by the Dodgers, Hunter was given $90 million over five years by the Angels, and Cameron was handed $7 million for a lone season with the Brewers. For me, all of this lead to a great deal of head scratching, and maybe even a little throwing up.
Let's start with Jones, who is coming off what is easily his worst season. Jones hit a paltry .222/.311/.413 in '07. Even with those statistics added in, his career line is much higher (.263/.342/.497), he's excellent at a difficult defensive position, and he's just 30. Jones is a very good bet to bounce back strong from his recent struggles; he enjoyed a plentiful power surge in 2005 and 2006, and maybe a change of scenery will even help. The Dodgers inked Jones to a two-year, $36.2 million deal, clearly scared off enough by his weak 2007 to commit to anything long-term. This deal isn't really that bad given today's free agent climate, although that annual pay rate is steep. But then again, in 2008 a center fielder who puts up a .900 OPS (which Jones could probably do again) and plays stellar defense (a given) might be worth about $18 million a season. The important thing to remember is that the Dodgers didn't backload the deal and screw themselves over in the long run. If Jones hits .270/.360/.560, they'll be getting a reasonable return on a big ticket item. If he flounders a bit, he's still a useful player and they're free of him after two seasons. In other words, if the Dodgers had to give Jones that much annually, they did a nice job of minimizing their risk.
Minimizing risk is an interesting concept, one that the Angels sure could care less about. A year after giving Gary Matthews a five-year, $50 million, the franchise decided to give Torii Hunter, who turns 33 during the 2008 season, a five-year deal of his own worth a whopping $90 million. Contract length, the very thing that made Jones' deal somewhat acceptable, makes Hunter's awful. While he was superior in 2007, Hunter at his best has never come close to equalling Jones' peak, and he never will. In fact, Hunter's career season in 2002 saw him post an OPS of .858, a figure only slightly higher than Jones's career OPS of .839 that includes a comically bad 2007. Hunter also depends largely on batting average as his means of getting on base, as he has never shown a high level of plate discipline. Additionally, despite his occasional web gems, Hunter is not the caliber of defender Jones is. While Hunter is a good, well-liked player, he doesn't have Jones' ceiling or track record, and he's very prone to injuries. It'll be extremely tough for him to maintain value over the duration of his five-year contract.
And then there's Mike Cameron, who recently has been involved in all sorts of silly conversations about his testing positive for a banned stimulant. There are some negatives that come to Milwaukee with Cameron. He'll have to serve a 25-game suspension for the aforementioned positive test, he's 35, and he's never hit for a high batting average. However, Cameron has always been extremely adept at drawing walks; he has a better career OBP than Hunter (Cameron's is .341, Hunter's is .324) despite his career batting average trailing Hunter's by 20 points (.271 to .251). If Hunter's batting average declines, which luck could even dictate, this will become increasingly apparent. Cameron also has a decent amount of power, and a move out of the cavernous Petco to Milwaukee can only help him clear the fences and plug the gaps more effectively. Cameron is a defensive force in center as well, rightfully capturing three Gold Gloves in his career thus far. Odds are, if this was a fair world and Gold Glove voting made any sense at all, Cameron would have a lot more than that. Base stealing, an often overrated art, is something Cameron does well enough to make it useful. Over the course of his time in the big leagues, he has stolen 272 bases in 346 attempts, good for a 78.6% success rate. Mike Cameron is quite simply a vastly underrated talent, even if he is a bit old. The Brewers are going to like what they get for $7 million, even if he's missing a portion of the season. It's really a wonder that more teams weren't in on the Cameron sweepstakes; he's been a fine player for a long time now, and his contract provides the best value of these three by a sizeable margin. The Cubs look awfully good in the NL Central, but watch out for the Brewers again.
If general managers were more careful, perhaps more teams would end up cashing in on deals like Cameron's instead of throwing piles and piles of money at players because they like the guy's smile or something. That Cameron makes about 39% of what Jones and Hunter do each season is sort of comical. The disparity in play between Jones and Cameron doesn't warrant that big of a difference, and one could make a solid case that M-Cam offers a better overall package than Hunter does. Let the buyer beware.
The "Hot" Corner
With Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus reportedly both passing his respective physical today, the trade between the Cardinals and Blue Jays should be formally announced at any moment. While Cardinal fans have no reason to be elated about this unique one-for-one swap, it's certainly not a bad deal on the surface. Obviously, each player is an injury risk, so there are a lot of variables involved. All things considered, though, both players earning roughly $12 million a year, Glaus for two seasons is a safer bet than Rolen for three. At this point, Glaus is probably a more useful offensive player than Rolen, he's a little over a year younger, and none of his injuries have ever drained his power enough to result in the abysmal slugging percentages Rolen has been posting in recent times. For example, Rolen has slugged under .400 in two of his last three seasons. Glaus, conversely, has never slugged anywhere near that low in his entire career aside from his .291 showing in 165 at bats as a rookie in 1998. Overall, if you're wondering which player is a more reliable run producer at this stage of their careers, the answer is Troy Glaus, making the trade an acceptable one.
Of course, there are other motivations for the deal, such as the fact that Scott Rolen all but refused to play baseball in St. Louis anymore. It's a fitting punishment for him to go spend three seasons in Canada, playing for a team that couldn't finish higher than third in the division even if they ruled. There are also the defensive implications of the deal. Rolen is a world class defender at third, whereas Glaus is merely adequate. I don't really think the defensive discrepancy is all that pertinent, though. It's unlikely that losing Rolen and his seven Gold Gloves is going to result in a worse overall record; after all, third base is not exactly considered a skill position. Power is first and foremost what a successful team needs to get from the corner spots, and Glaus is a more consistent offensive force, albeit one with a lower ceiling.
The promising aspect of this trade is that while Glaus, too, has suffered from injuries that make his durability an issue, at least he's always stayed somewhat productive when he does play. Last year, when he battled an assortment of foot and leg related problems, he was still quite useful, hitting .262/.366/.473, good for an OPS+ of 120, very near his career total of 121, whi
ch is narrowly beaten by Rolen's 126. These totals would seem to indicate that the two are not as far apart in terms of offensive talent as one would tend to believe on reputation alone. For one, Glaus is an extremely patient hitter, drawing 701 walks in 5,203 plate appearances, good for a BB/PA rate of .135. In comparison, Rolen's rate is only .113. It's not that Rolen is poor at drawing walks necessarily, but Glaus has always been extremely adept at reaching base via the free pass. Of course, he doesn't hit for the average Rolen does, so in terms of overall OBP, Rolen gets the slight nod (.372 to .358), but a player who earns his OBP through walks is more valuable than a player who gets it through batting average, a far more luck based stat. The bottom line is, the worst case scenario for each player is something you'd give Glaus the nod in. Rolen could be as bad as .260/.330/.390, whereas there's no reason to believe Glaus could possibly post worse than .250/.350/.450. Rolen's still the more talented player of the two, but the odds of him finding his pre 2005 form aren't that likely. While Glaus is hardly an ideal middle of the order solution, he's a more viable clean up hitter than Rolen currently. I'm just saying, he'd be fucking perfect as a six hitter if the lineup was deep enough (it isn't).
With this trade, the 2008 Cardinals are probably pretty much set. There may be a few small spring surprises, or even another trade or two beforehand, but ultimately, what you see is what you get, and that's not an especially good thing. I will return soon with a relatively thorough preview of the team's projected offense and defense, likely to be broken up in two parts. Check back soon.
Of course, there are other motivations for the deal, such as the fact that Scott Rolen all but refused to play baseball in St. Louis anymore. It's a fitting punishment for him to go spend three seasons in Canada, playing for a team that couldn't finish higher than third in the division even if they ruled. There are also the defensive implications of the deal. Rolen is a world class defender at third, whereas Glaus is merely adequate. I don't really think the defensive discrepancy is all that pertinent, though. It's unlikely that losing Rolen and his seven Gold Gloves is going to result in a worse overall record; after all, third base is not exactly considered a skill position. Power is first and foremost what a successful team needs to get from the corner spots, and Glaus is a more consistent offensive force, albeit one with a lower ceiling.
The promising aspect of this trade is that while Glaus, too, has suffered from injuries that make his durability an issue, at least he's always stayed somewhat productive when he does play. Last year, when he battled an assortment of foot and leg related problems, he was still quite useful, hitting .262/.366/.473, good for an OPS+ of 120, very near his career total of 121, whi
ch is narrowly beaten by Rolen's 126. These totals would seem to indicate that the two are not as far apart in terms of offensive talent as one would tend to believe on reputation alone. For one, Glaus is an extremely patient hitter, drawing 701 walks in 5,203 plate appearances, good for a BB/PA rate of .135. In comparison, Rolen's rate is only .113. It's not that Rolen is poor at drawing walks necessarily, but Glaus has always been extremely adept at reaching base via the free pass. Of course, he doesn't hit for the average Rolen does, so in terms of overall OBP, Rolen gets the slight nod (.372 to .358), but a player who earns his OBP through walks is more valuable than a player who gets it through batting average, a far more luck based stat. The bottom line is, the worst case scenario for each player is something you'd give Glaus the nod in. Rolen could be as bad as .260/.330/.390, whereas there's no reason to believe Glaus could possibly post worse than .250/.350/.450. Rolen's still the more talented player of the two, but the odds of him finding his pre 2005 form aren't that likely. While Glaus is hardly an ideal middle of the order solution, he's a more viable clean up hitter than Rolen currently. I'm just saying, he'd be fucking perfect as a six hitter if the lineup was deep enough (it isn't).With this trade, the 2008 Cardinals are probably pretty much set. There may be a few small spring surprises, or even another trade or two beforehand, but ultimately, what you see is what you get, and that's not an especially good thing. I will return soon with a relatively thorough preview of the team's projected offense and defense, likely to be broken up in two parts. Check back soon.
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