Before I begin, let me apologize for the unsurprising drop-off in production over the last few months. It can mostly be summarized in one word: poverty. We, at the house of Sprayahen Baseball, have no money, and there have been several ice storms, internet stoppages, and full out power outages in recent times that have kept us derailed and unable to bring our community of reader (singular noun, based on the comments thus far, and we most likely already lost that one by now) any new content. If you are still around, reader, feel free to leave a comment. If not, I will just go ahead and write the rest of this for Brian.
A little over two years ago, I penned an article for sprayahen.com about the nature of Rick Ankiel's conversion to a hitter. I proclaimed that there were a multitude of reasons to "convince me that Rick will not have quite the success Babe Ruth had as a hitter." I also said that "the day he even stands in a major league batter's box during a regular season game as a position player should never come." Well, that day has already come and gone, and he's already succeeded far more than anyone thought he would. The problem is that as impressive as his accomplishment is, it still isn't worth getting that excited over as a fan. Maybe if I were Rick's mother, I'd be pretty proud of him, but as a baseball fan, and a cynical one at that, I still say he should have fucking stuck to pitching, where he could have meant so much more to the sport.
Here's my issue: people actually think he's going to be a genuine middle-of-the-order force offensively. That just isn't very likely. The man is obviously very athle
tic and possesses good raw power, but that's where it stops. He has no plate discipline whatsoever, and he'll be extremely beatable as soon as major league pitchers have the chance to best learn how to exploit his weaknesses. As exciting as his power surge in late 2007 was, it sickens me to hear Tony talking about batting him clean-up, or even second. It would appear that the most optimistic on-base percentage projection for him would be somewhere around the .330 range, and that's if his batting average is pretty lofty. I'm not saying a hitter with a .330 OBP could in no circumstances ever bat in the middle of the order, but he'd better be slugging somewhere around the .600 range, or he's simply not an elite player. Ankiel is not an elite player, at least not as a hitter. He's suitable enough for an extra outfielder, but that's not what is expected of him these days.
According to Jeff Gordon of the Post-Dispatch, now that the Cardinals have locked up Wainwright in a deal very similar to that of battery mate Yadier Molina, the organization's next challenge "will be keeping Rick Ankiel, should Young Musial enjoy the breakout season many expect. That could cost a LOT of money, but the Cards will have the budget for it after taking a pass on pricey free-agent outfielders like Torii Hunter."
The only point Gordon makes that I do want to concur with is that the club absolutely did itself a favor by not going after the likes of Torii Hunter. He's just plain not very good, and the length of his contract alone is cause for concern, setting aside all issues with the $18 million seasonal average. However, the rest of the ideas expressed in Gordon's selected text is laughable. We're comparing Ankiel to Stan Musial now? Why, other than that Musial, too, was a pitcher who converted to hitting? Musial's career line was .331/.417/.559; Ankiel has no shot at approaching any of those, particularly the OBP portion. He did happen to slug .535 in his brief big-league sample last season, and if he were able to reproduce that stat every season with 600 at-bats, you'd have a dangerous hitter. Even so, with an OBP of .330 or worse, you still only have a sixth place hitter in any respectable lineup. However, the odds of that slugging percentage being repeated are not in Rick's favor, especially not if he's exposed by playing every day.
I'm not trying to tear down Ankiel, or even Jeff Gordon. Neither would need to work 12 AM-8 AM shifts to make ends meet, so it's not that I'm being arrogant and claiming superiority here. I'm simply suggesting that Rick Ankiel is no Babe Ruth. In fact, he's not even Stan Musial. He's certainly a better option than Skip Schumaker, and if great expectations weren't unreasonably being heaped upon him, I'd be just fine with his presence on the big league roster, where he could effectively serve as a viable bench player, one capable of making productive pinch hit appearances and giving the regular outfielders at all three positions rest from time to time. Temper your expectations, you feel-good story seeking optimists.
A little over two years ago, I penned an article for sprayahen.com about the nature of Rick Ankiel's conversion to a hitter. I proclaimed that there were a multitude of reasons to "convince me that Rick will not have quite the success Babe Ruth had as a hitter." I also said that "the day he even stands in a major league batter's box during a regular season game as a position player should never come." Well, that day has already come and gone, and he's already succeeded far more than anyone thought he would. The problem is that as impressive as his accomplishment is, it still isn't worth getting that excited over as a fan. Maybe if I were Rick's mother, I'd be pretty proud of him, but as a baseball fan, and a cynical one at that, I still say he should have fucking stuck to pitching, where he could have meant so much more to the sport.
Here's my issue: people actually think he's going to be a genuine middle-of-the-order force offensively. That just isn't very likely. The man is obviously very athle
tic and possesses good raw power, but that's where it stops. He has no plate discipline whatsoever, and he'll be extremely beatable as soon as major league pitchers have the chance to best learn how to exploit his weaknesses. As exciting as his power surge in late 2007 was, it sickens me to hear Tony talking about batting him clean-up, or even second. It would appear that the most optimistic on-base percentage projection for him would be somewhere around the .330 range, and that's if his batting average is pretty lofty. I'm not saying a hitter with a .330 OBP could in no circumstances ever bat in the middle of the order, but he'd better be slugging somewhere around the .600 range, or he's simply not an elite player. Ankiel is not an elite player, at least not as a hitter. He's suitable enough for an extra outfielder, but that's not what is expected of him these days.According to Jeff Gordon of the Post-Dispatch, now that the Cardinals have locked up Wainwright in a deal very similar to that of battery mate Yadier Molina, the organization's next challenge "will be keeping Rick Ankiel, should Young Musial enjoy the breakout season many expect. That could cost a LOT of money, but the Cards will have the budget for it after taking a pass on pricey free-agent outfielders like Torii Hunter."
The only point Gordon makes that I do want to concur with is that the club absolutely did itself a favor by not going after the likes of Torii Hunter. He's just plain not very good, and the length of his contract alone is cause for concern, setting aside all issues with the $18 million seasonal average. However, the rest of the ideas expressed in Gordon's selected text is laughable. We're comparing Ankiel to Stan Musial now? Why, other than that Musial, too, was a pitcher who converted to hitting? Musial's career line was .331/.417/.559; Ankiel has no shot at approaching any of those, particularly the OBP portion. He did happen to slug .535 in his brief big-league sample last season, and if he were able to reproduce that stat every season with 600 at-bats, you'd have a dangerous hitter. Even so, with an OBP of .330 or worse, you still only have a sixth place hitter in any respectable lineup. However, the odds of that slugging percentage being repeated are not in Rick's favor, especially not if he's exposed by playing every day.
I'm not trying to tear down Ankiel, or even Jeff Gordon. Neither would need to work 12 AM-8 AM shifts to make ends meet, so it's not that I'm being arrogant and claiming superiority here. I'm simply suggesting that Rick Ankiel is no Babe Ruth. In fact, he's not even Stan Musial. He's certainly a better option than Skip Schumaker, and if great expectations weren't unreasonably being heaped upon him, I'd be just fine with his presence on the big league roster, where he could effectively serve as a viable bench player, one capable of making productive pinch hit appearances and giving the regular outfielders at all three positions rest from time to time. Temper your expectations, you feel-good story seeking optimists.
4 comments:
Yes, Ankiel is nowhere near as good of a hitter as Ruth, Musial, or Pujols, but he does easily hit well enough to be one of our starting outfielders. He almost certainly won't keep pace with the home runs he hit in the 2nd half last year, but he should hit about as well as Duncan, meaning 25-30 homers, .270-.280 average, and 70-85 RBIs. Along with Pujols and Glaus, the Cardinals should have one of the best sets of four hitters in the league this year. It's SS, 2B, and the other OF position (unless Rasmus does well after he's called up) that make the lineup somewhat questionable.
reading this makes me depressed about this season...
ps- was the .com abandoned?
It's now May 1, and Ankiel is hitting .290, with a .372 OBP, and a .520 SLG% (.892 OPS). He's also on pace for 28 home runs, 45 doubles, 89 RBIs, and 95 runs scored. Are you ready to admit that you were wrong about him?
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