Too Much Pitching?

"Oh, what an exciting time it is to be a Cardinal fan!" exclaims the clueless, unobservant baseball follower. See, this person hears the news that Mark Mulder has been "pitching well" in a couple rehab starts and is on his way back to the majors, where he will "pitch like the Mark Mulder of old". The trouble is, he hasn't been pitching very well, even against minor league hitters mind you, and he'll never be the Mark Mulder of old. That Mark Mulder didn't even make the transition to the National League in 2005. The best the Cardinals can hope for is that season's edition of Mulder, who is, at best, a middle of the rotation starter. But considering the alternatives, namely that they may be stuck with the '06-'07 version, which means worse than replacement level, I'd gladly take '05 Mark Mulder.

Here is the problem: in his first rehab start against Class A hitters, Mulder went five innings, giving up six hits and striking out just one. He topped out at 88 mph, and was throwing in the low 80's by the end of his outing. His next start in Springfield against Class AA hitters was really not much more encouraging, as he went six innings while striking out just one with a fastball that averaged out at 87 mph. I understand he's only given up one run, and I understand it could take time for him to regain his command, but the fact that he isn't missing the bats of raw, unpolished farm products leads me to believe that once promoted back to the majors, it'll only be more of the same thing we've seen the past few seasons. Like I said, best case scenario, we may get the Mulder of '05, who was extraordinarily average. The bottom line is no one needs to be getting excited about the return of Mark Mulder, not anymore.

I actually think the Cardinals' front office realizes this, finally. It shows in the sense that they're not exactly eager to stick him back on the 25-man roster; instead, they're letting their fill-ins continue filling in while stretching Mulder's rehab assignment to the maximum 30 days. Although they claim it's just so he can get his feel back, what it actually means is that privately no one believes he's an upgrade, even over the likes of Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper. Wellemeyer, for one, is pitching out of his mind right now (26 K/9 BB in 25 IP), although expecting it to last is foolishly optimistic.

The problem that Cardinals have is a surplus of players that are replaceable. The only genuine way to solve this problem is to trade/release every single dead weight player and fill in the gaps with farm products, cost effective solutions that can perform on par with the likes of Aaron Miles, Skip Schumaker, and Brad Thompson. Admittedly, none of those guys is hogging up payroll, but they have little to no ceiling; they're just taking up roster space. When Russ Springer was recalled, the only obvious player to be sent down was Rico Washington, which gives St. Louis the unusual breakdown of 12 position players and 13 pitchers. This won't even out again until Brendan Ryan is ready to go, in which case one of the 13 pitchers, none of whom are especially deserving, have to be sent down to AAA or, even better, released.

It's unfair to say that Brad Thompson has been pitching poorly to start the season, so a demotion seems kind of odd, but the fact is they wouldn't be demoting him because he hasn't pitched well enough. They'd be demoting him because he isn't talented enough. Personally, I think Villone should go before Thompson, but since he's left-handed, that's not likely to happen. The fact is, the Cardinals do have too many pitchers to put them all at the big league level, especially when/if Matt Clement and Chris Carpenter return, and guys like Anthony Reyes and even Thompson are probably good enough to where they could pitch in the majors somewhere.

When you get right down it, though, this alleged pitching surplus is only in quantity, not quality. If you count out all the pitchers who are either unproven or injured with their future ability in doubt, you're left with only one bona fide starter: Adam Wainwright. The rest of the pitching staff is riddled with converted relievers and long shot has-beens, and that includes Matt Clement, who is unlikely to return to his power pitching ways of 2002-2004 after such a long lay-off. The same goes for Pineiro, who hasn't even been decent since 2003. This team may have a lot of names to juggle into their complicated 12-man jigsaw puzzle, but the future of the pitching assembly should primarily include Adam Wainwright and a lot of promising farm system relievers.