Dollars and No Sense

I know I'm sort of beating a dead horse here, but why is the free agent market so illogical? I'm not writing this as a general commentary; I intend to provide specifics, and what better place to start than with the fates of this off-season's crop of free agent center fielders.

Three somewhat big name center fielders hit the market after the 2007 season concluded, each with plenty of caveats: Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and the lessser-heralded Mike Cameron. All three were approached with different kinds of contracts in mind. Jones was signed to a two-year, $36.2 million deal by the Dodgers, Hunter was given $90 million over five years by the Angels, and Cameron was handed $7 million for a lone season with the Brewers. For me, all of this lead to a great deal of head scratching, and maybe even a little throwing up.

Let's start with Jones, who is coming off what is easily his worst season. Jones hit a paltry .222/.311/.413 in '07. Even with those statistics added in, his career line is much higher (.263/.342/.497), he's excellent at a difficult defensive position, and he's just 30. Jones is a very good bet to bounce back strong from his recent struggles; he enjoyed a plentiful power surge in 2005 and 2006, and maybe a change of scenery will even help. The Dodgers inked Jones to a two-year, $36.2 million deal, clearly scared off enough by his weak 2007 to commit to anything long-term. This deal isn't really that bad given today's free agent climate, although that annual pay rate is steep. But then again, in 2008 a center fielder who puts up a .900 OPS (which Jones could probably do again) and plays stellar defense (a given) might be worth about $18 million a season. The important thing to remember is that the Dodgers didn't backload the deal and screw themselves over in the long run. If Jones hits .270/.360/.560, they'll be getting a reasonable return on a big ticket item. If he flounders a bit, he's still a useful player and they're free of him after two seasons. In other words, if the Dodgers had to give Jones that much annually, they did a nice job of minimizing their risk.

Minimizing risk is an interesting concept, one that the Angels sure could care less about. A year after giving Gary Matthews a five-year, $50 million, the franchise decided to give Torii Hunter, who turns 33 during the 2008 season, a five-year deal of his own worth a whopping $90 million. Contract length, the very thing that made Jones' deal somewhat acceptable, makes Hunter's awful. While he was superior in 2007, Hunter at his best has never come close to equalling Jones' peak, and he never will. In fact, Hunter's career season in 2002 saw him post an OPS of .858, a figure only slightly higher than Jones's career OPS of .839 that includes a comically bad 2007. Hunter also depends largely on batting average as his means of getting on base, as he has never shown a high level of plate discipline. Additionally, despite his occasional web gems, Hunter is not the caliber of defender Jones is. While Hunter is a good, well-liked player, he doesn't have Jones' ceiling or track record, and he's very prone to injuries. It'll be extremely tough for him to maintain value over the duration of his five-year contract.

And then there's Mike Cameron, who recently has been involved in all sorts of silly conversations about his testing positive for a banned stimulant. There are some negatives that come to Milwaukee with Cameron. He'll have to serve a 25-game suspension for the aforementioned positive test, he's 35, and he's never hit for a high batting average. However, Cameron has always been extremely adept at drawing walks; he has a better career OBP than Hunter (Cameron's is .341, Hunter's is .324) despite his career batting average trailing Hunter's by 20 points (.271 to .251). If Hunter's batting average declines, which luck could even dictate, this will become increasingly apparent. Cameron also has a decent amount of power, and a move out of the cavernous Petco to Milwaukee can only help him clear the fences and plug the gaps more effectively. Cameron is a defensive force in center as well, rightfully capturing three Gold Gloves in his career thus far. Odds are, if this was a fair world and Gold Glove voting made any sense at all, Cameron would have a lot more than that. Base stealing, an often overrated art, is something Cameron does well enough to make it useful. Over the course of his time in the big leagues, he has stolen 272 bases in 346 attempts, good for a 78.6% success rate. Mike Cameron is quite simply a vastly underrated talent, even if he is a bit old. The Brewers are going to like what they get for $7 million, even if he's missing a portion of the season. It's really a wonder that more teams weren't in on the Cameron sweepstakes; he's been a fine player for a long time now, and his contract provides the best value of these three by a sizeable margin. The Cubs look awfully good in the NL Central, but watch out for the Brewers again.

If general managers were more careful, perhaps more teams would end up cashing in on deals like Cameron's instead of throwing piles and piles of money at players because they like the guy's smile or something. That Cameron makes about 39% of what Jones and Hunter do each season is sort of comical. The disparity in play between Jones and Cameron doesn't warrant that big of a difference, and one could make a solid case that M-Cam offers a better overall package than Hunter does. Let the buyer beware.