The "Hot" Corner

With Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus reportedly both passing his respective physical today, the trade between the Cardinals and Blue Jays should be formally announced at any moment. While Cardinal fans have no reason to be elated about this unique one-for-one swap, it's certainly not a bad deal on the surface. Obviously, each player is an injury risk, so there are a lot of variables involved. All things considered, though, both players earning roughly $12 million a year, Glaus for two seasons is a safer bet than Rolen for three. At this point, Glaus is probably a more useful offensive player than Rolen, he's a little over a year younger, and none of his injuries have ever drained his power enough to result in the abysmal slugging percentages Rolen has been posting in recent times. For example, Rolen has slugged under .400 in two of his last three seasons. Glaus, conversely, has never slugged anywhere near that low in his entire career aside from his .291 showing in 165 at bats as a rookie in 1998. Overall, if you're wondering which player is a more reliable run producer at this stage of their careers, the answer is Troy Glaus, making the trade an acceptable one.

Of course, there are other motivations for the deal, such as the fact that Scott Rolen all but refused to play baseball in St. Louis anymore. It's a fitting punishment for him to go spend three seasons in Canada, playing for a team that couldn't finish higher than third in the division even if they ruled. There are also the defensive implications of the deal. Rolen is a world class defender at third, whereas Glaus is merely adequate. I don't really think the defensive discrepancy is all that pertinent, though. It's unlikely that losing Rolen and his seven Gold Gloves is going to result in a worse overall record; after all, third base is not exactly considered a skill position. Power is first and foremost what a successful team needs to get from the corner spots, and Glaus is a more consistent offensive force, albeit one with a lower ceiling.

The promising aspect of this trade is that while Glaus, too, has suffered from injuries that make his durability an issue, at least he's always stayed somewhat productive when he does play. Last year, when he battled an assortment of foot and leg related problems, he was still quite useful, hitting .262/.366/.473, good for an OPS+ of 120, very near his career total of 121, which is narrowly beaten by Rolen's 126. These totals would seem to indicate that the two are not as far apart in terms of offensive talent as one would tend to believe on reputation alone. For one, Glaus is an extremely patient hitter, drawing 701 walks in 5,203 plate appearances, good for a BB/PA rate of .135. In comparison, Rolen's rate is only .113. It's not that Rolen is poor at drawing walks necessarily, but Glaus has always been extremely adept at reaching base via the free pass. Of course, he doesn't hit for the average Rolen does, so in terms of overall OBP, Rolen gets the slight nod (.372 to .358), but a player who earns his OBP through walks is more valuable than a player who gets it through batting average, a far more luck based stat. The bottom line is, the worst case scenario for each player is something you'd give Glaus the nod in. Rolen could be as bad as .260/.330/.390, whereas there's no reason to believe Glaus could possibly post worse than .250/.350/.450. Rolen's still the more talented player of the two, but the odds of him finding his pre 2005 form aren't that likely. While Glaus is hardly an ideal middle of the order solution, he's a more viable clean up hitter than Rolen currently. I'm just saying, he'd be fucking perfect as a six hitter if the lineup was deep enough (it isn't).

With this trade, the 2008 Cardinals are probably pretty much set. There may be a few small spring surprises, or even another trade or two beforehand, but ultimately, what you see is what you get, and that's not an especially good thing. I will return soon with a relatively thorough preview of the team's projected offense and defense, likely to be broken up in two parts. Check back soon.